In light of the announcement that the Cleveland Cavaliers have agreed to a trade that will send Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, and a first-round draft pick the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Kevin Love, the NBA Futures market at Bovada.lv has shifted once again. The Cavaliers remained the favorite, but are now a 5/2 favorite compared to the 4/1 favorite they were on July 12.
This trade clearly strengthens the Cavs in the here and now, but anything less than a championship will turn this trade into a major disappointment. Nevertheless, it was a move that had to be made and the Cavs have a big three in LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love that is unrivaled in recent history.
This trade has been rumored for quite some time, but now that it has come to fruition, here’s an updated look at the odds for the 2015 NBA Championship courtesy of Bovada.lv.
|Team||Current Odds||July 12 Odds|
Across the board, most of the Eastern Conference faces longer odds to win the championship than they did before the Cavaliers completed a deal to acquire Kevin Love. The horrible leg injury suffered by Paul George that will cost him most, if not all, of the 2014-15 season has set Indiana’s futures price at 40/1 after dropping from 12/1 to 18/1 when LeBron James announced that he was returning to the Cavs.
There’s no guarantee that the Cavs steamroll through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs. Championships cannot be won on paper, though there aren’t very many big surprises in the NBA like they can be in other leagues. The Cavs are clearly in the best position in the Eastern Conference, but there are no certainties. The avalanche of money on the Cavs could look very bad if LeBron or Kyrie Irving go down with a major injury and then bettors are left holding a ticket at a bad number. Overall, the value is gone and has been long gone on the Cavaliers.
There’s probably not a whole lot of value in taking the Bulls as a preseason future either. Bettors can probably get a series price on them around +550 if the two teams meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. Even if it’s around +400, bettors will have to cut into their potential profit for the convenience of not tying up money for the next eight or nine months. A buck fifty is substantial, but it’s better to wait and see what happens with the season, especially because a Derrick Rose injury would render a Bulls future pretty useless.
One of the hardest parts of trying to find an Eastern Conference team to bet on is that it’s going to be pretty difficult to hedge and guarantee profit. Holding a 33/1 ticket on a team like Miami is great, but they’d have to not only make the Conference Finals, but look good enough on the way there that the Cavs series price is either low enough to hedge or hope to rollover some moneylines during the series. It will create a very tough spot. It can be done because the Cavs are such an overwhelming favorite, but it could take some serious maneuvering and a little bit of luck to pick the right team out of the rest of the Eastern Conference.
With the NBA Preseason a little under two months away, there are sure to be some more moves in the NBA Futures market as we approach the 2014-15 NBA season.
Adam Burke is a freelance writer and amateur handicapper with a knack for finding value through matchup analysis and a deep understanding of the sports betting market. His main area of expertise is baseball, with a background in sabermetrics and advanced statistics. He is the host of The Gridiron Gambling Report and our college football and college basketball BangTheBook.com podcasts on the BlogTalkRadio Network.