College Bowl System Picks
The bowl season can really be broken into two separate groups; games played before January serve as almost a warm-up for the January games, which is when the top teams in the country typically take to the field. Likewise, the results in the December bowl games have been drastically than those in January, particularly in relation to double-digit underdogs.
Dating back to 1985, double digit underdogs have been 43-22-2 (66.1%) in December, but a dismal 11-23 (32.3%) in January games. Similarly, totals in those December games were 26-37-1, going over just 41.2% of the time, but 18-13 in January games, meaning the over cashed slightly more than 58% of the time.
There are four double-digit underdogs remaining in December; Rutgers+14 against Notre Dame, Texas+13.5 against Oregon, Texas Tech+14 against Arizona State, and Duke+12 against Texas A&M.
Of the four, the one with the best chance to pull off an outright upset is probably the Texas Longhorns, who will be fired up in Mack Brown’s last game, while playing an Oregon team that had national championship aspirations for the majority of the season. How fired up can the Ducks be to be playing in the Alamo Bowl?
On the other end of the spectrum are Central Florida and Oklahoma, both of whom will be double-digit underdogs in BCS games that will be played in January. The high-powered Baylor Bears are 16.5-point favorites over the Knights, while Alabama is favored by 15 points over the Sooners. The Crimson Tide is capable of winning the game by 24 or more points if they are truly motivated.
Baylor has put up plenty of points during the season and while Central Florida’s defense is statistically one of the best they have faced, the Knights haven’t seen anything like the Bears’ offense during the season. Central Florida will score some points with Blake Bortles at the helm, so they game is also a decent bet to go over the current total of 69.
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