College Football Betting By the Numbers: Week 2

When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 2. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!

-1: The number of rushing yards that the Ohio State Buckeyes allowed last week to the Miami Redhawks. The Redhawks are perennially one of the worst rushing teams in college football, but it’s not like it was from a lack of trying last week. Miami ran the ball 20 times to get those -1 yards. Now, the UCF Knights are coming to town, and they are built on rushing the pigskin. Last week against Akron, UCF ran the ball 46 times and threw it just 19. Obviously if that’s the plan this week, the offensive line had better be ready for a big time challenge. There’s a reason that the Knights are 18.5-point underdogs even though many think that they could be this year’s BCS buster.

2: The number of teams that are left without a loss this year after just one week in Conference USA. The UCF Knights and the East Carolina Pirates are the only ones of the 12 teams in C-USA that didn’t lose last week, and their prospects don’t exactly look great this time around. UCF is an 18.5-point pup to the Ohio State Buckeyes, while ECU is getting 21 from the South Carolina Gamecocks.

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4: The number of consecutive games that the Missouri Tigers have won both SU and ATS against team from the SEC. Missouri opens up its SEC portion of the schedule this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs, a test that will surely be a heck of a lot sterner than the games against the Arkansas Razorbacks from 2008, Ole Miss Rebels from 2006 and 2007, and South Carolina Gamecocks in 2005. Mizzou is a slight 2.5-point underdog at home against UGA.

4: The number of FCS teams that beat FBS teams in Week 1 of the season. All-time, FBS teams are 1838-396-18 against FCS schools courtesy of FootballGeography.com>. Big Six conference teams have been beaten by FCS teams 22 times since 2000, three of which came last year. This year’s victims so far? Middle Tennessee State (lost to McNeese State), Idaho (lost to Eastern Washington), Memphis (lost to Tennessee Martin), and our first Big Six loser of the year, Pittsburgh (lost to Youngstown State in a game that the hosts never led).

5: The number of FCS teams that were just one score away from beating FBS teams. It could have been the bloodiest weekend for FBS teams in college football history had three of these near upsets gone the other direction. Indiana beat Indiana State by seven, but the Sycamores had three drives in the fourth quarter that all ended without points that got into Hoosiers territory. Wake Forest only took its first lead against Liberty early in the fourth quarter, only to find itself winning by just a field goal. Wisconsin nearly blew leads of 19-0 and 26-7 against Northern Iowa, which found itself just 41 yards away from pulling the upset. The Badgers won by five. Maryland finally scored a touchdown to take the lead against William & Mary with 10:52 left in the game, but it still only just hung on for a 7-6 win. Florida Atlantic suffered a lot of bad luck, but it still only just barely escaped with a 7-3 win over Wagner. Who will be the next team to get upset? There are 26 games this week with FBS teams facing FCS teams… and that brings us to the number…

5-3: The number that represents the record for the North Dakota State Bison against FBS teams in their history. Why is that relevant? The Bison are taking on the Colorado State Rams this week. The Rams beat the Colorado Buffaloes last week, a team from the major Pac-12, and yet CSU is only favored by 3.5 back at home against an FCS team, albeit the FCS champs from a campaign ago.

7: The number of teams in FBS football that will be opening up their action this weekend. The first is the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are favored by four over the Pitt Panthers. The others include the Army Black Knights (+6 @ San Diego State), Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-3.5 @ Houston), Oregon State Beavers (+7 vs. Wisconsin), Texas A&M Aggies (-1.5 vs. Florida), and Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (+30.5 @ Arkansas).

8.5: The number of points that the line has already moved against the Houston Cougars this week. The Cougs were beaten as 34.5 point favorites last week against the Texas State Bobcats, and they promptly fired their offensive coordinator as a result. Houston is taking on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at home this week. BetOnline opened college football betting lines on Sunday afternoon and made Houston a 5-point favorite. As of Thursday afternoon, that line is now Louisiana Tech -3.5.

39: The number that represents the biggest point spread of the weekend in games pitting two FBS teams against each other. That number belongs to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, who are going to just hope to hang in there against the Alabama Crimson Tide. This could be a brutal display between teams that are clearly separated by a heck of a lot, though at least we know that the Hilltoppers were one of the better teams in the Sun Belt last year. Still, is anyone able to stop the Crimson Tide at this point? Michigan sure as heck didn’t last week.

44: The number of points in the lowest ‘total’ of the week. The Kentucky Wildcats were only able to amass 373 yards and two touchdowns in a dismal loss to their arch rivals, the Louisville Cardinals last week, and their offense looked largely lost. It’s not like the team that they are going to be facing this week, the Kent State Golden Flashes are all that much better. Sure, they scored 41 points against the Towson Tigers, but they had just 267 yards of offense, and they had a moron pick up a fumbled punt in that game and race it 60+ yards in the wrong direction to take points off the board.

66: The number of points that the Florida State Seminoles are favored by over the Savannah State Tigers… for now. The Tigers were 67.5-point underdogs last week against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and they never had a shot of covering that number. At the time, that was the biggest point spread in the history of college football betting action. If Florida State can creep up just two more points from where it sits as of Thursday afternoon, it will take over that title. Either way, it spells bad news for Savannah State.

76.5: The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. That goes to the Oregon Ducks and Fresno State Bulldogs. It’s not a wonder for sure that Oregon ‘totals’ are this high. We don’t know what’s more impressive. Is it the fact that the Ducks dropped 50 in the first half against the Arkansas State Red Wolves, or that the Sun Belt reps came back and scored 31 of the game’s last 38 points? Fresno State’s offense has some real talent, too, with QB Derek Carr, brother of former No. 1 overall pick of the NFL Draft, David Carr, and RB Robbie Rouse involved.

864: The number of total yards that the Syracuse Orange and USC Trojans passed for last week in their respective games. Think that there could be some points put on the board in this one? The ‘total’ is only hanging at 62 right now, but QB Ryan Nassib has visions of throwing for 400+ yards again on the Men of Troy, it’s clear that this game at MetLife Stadium will end up flying past the ‘total’.

1306: The number of total yards that the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Arizona Wildcats combined for last week. It wasn’t surprising to see Okie State drop nearly 700 yards on Savannah State; it’s Savannah State for crying out loud. However, you wouldn’t think that Arizona, a team that needed overtime to beat the Toledo Rockets by the modest count of 24-17 would have had 624 yards from scrimmage last week. Arizona turned the ball over three times in terrible spots that week, missed once on fourth down, and missed two field goals that could have really changed the course of the game. There’s a reason that this game between these two high flyers is featuring a ‘total’ of 69.5, the second highest of the weekend.

1995: The number representing the last time that the Texas A&M Aggies beat a team from the SEC either from an SU or an ATS standpoint. Since a 1995 win over the LSU Tigers, A&M has run off seven straight losses for college football betting fans, and that’s rough knowing that it has played in a Cotton Bowl (2011) and had been playing an annual game with the Arkansas Razorbacks from 2009 through 2011. This week’s test is against the Florida Gators, and the Aggies are 1.5-point favorites in the first game for Head Coach Kevin Sumlin.

Aaron Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.