(7-1, 5-3 ATS)
Texas Tech Red Raiders
(4-4, 2-5-1 ATS)
Saturday’s night Texas sized NCAA football betting shootout in Lubbock is going to be one to remember, as the Missouri Tigers look to keep their BCS hopes alive against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
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Missouri’s psyche right now is not one to be messed with. The team is coming off of that bad loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers that took it out of the driver’s seat in the Big XII South and really put the clamps on its BCS hopes. Big Red isn’t out of the woods yet, and this is a Tiger team that can really go on a run in a hurry. The ‘Zou is averaging 32.5 points and 414.4 yards per game this season, and it has an incredibly well balanced attack, a change from recent years. Sure, QB Blaine Gabbert would still love to chuck the ball all over the place, but he realizes that he doesn’t always have to. Gabbert has thrown for 2,098 yards and a dozen TDs this year, and he has done a great job taking care of the pigskin, throwing just four INTs. If you take out the two games against the best teams in this conference, the Huskers and the Oklahoma Sooners, the Tigers have been fantastic, holding the rest of the teams on the schedule to just an average of 10.8 points per game. We don’t expect them to be that productive against a high flying T-Tech offense, but even just slowing this unit down will go a long way towards putting Mizzou back in the saddle.
The Red Raiders have not played well at home this year. They have hosted four games this year (even though three have only been played in Lubbock), and only have a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS mark to show for their work. QB Taylor Potts knows that he needs to give this team a major boost this week to get a crucial victory. Potts, the leader of the Air Raid assault, has thrown for 2,388 yards and 21 TDs this year, and his 65.4 percent completion percentage is rock solid. He has hooked up with WR Lyle Leong 47 times for 588 yards and 13 TDs this year, but WR Detron Lewis also has 49 catches for 495 yards. Defense has been the real issue for HC Tommy Tuberville in his first season in Lubbock, as he isn’t used to giving up this many yards and points. The Red Raiders are allowing 449.5 yards per game in total and have the nation’s second worst pass defense in the country at 317.4 yards per game. If all of that keeps up this weekend, Missouri will only make matters worse for a team that is allowing 32.6 points per game.
This game reminds us of a slightly easier version of the game that the Tigers played a few weeks ago at the Texas A&M Aggies. Last week, the Techsters were beaten down in front of the 12th Man, so just from that perspective, we tend to think that Mizzou has the advantage. This is a tough call, but we’ll go with Missouri, as the opportunity to go bowling will still present itself to TT even with a loss.
College Football Free Pick: Missouri Tigers -4