College Football Betting By the Numbers: Week 13
When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 13. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of ATS losses that the Wisconsin Badgers have thus far on the season. For a team that has already played 10 games, that’s a remarkable accomplishment, and it makes us wonder if this team can really go undefeated for the entire year from an ATS standpoint. The Badgers are still fighting for their lives for a BCS bowl bid, and it’s a bid they might get if they can win their last two games of the regular season. From our standpoint, just the fact that they have gone 9-0-1 ATS makes Wisky one of our favorite teams in the entire country.
0 – The number of teams that have beaten QB Johnny Manziel twice in his career. The Texas A&M Aggies only have four losses in these last two seasons with Johnny Football calling the shots, and all four of those defeats have come at home. Why is this stat notable this week? Because the Aggies are headed into the Bayou on Saturday against the LSU Tigers, who were one of the two teams to go on the road last year and beat the hosts in College Station. This is where we will see if this LSU defense can do it once again to Manziel and frustrate his style for the whole 60 minutes.
1 – The number of teams which have at least 10 ‘over’ games or 10 ‘under’ games played this year. The big ‘over’ winner is the Troy Trojans, who are a whopping 10-1 for ‘over bettors on the season. And, to make things even more interesting, if you bet the ‘over’ early enough in the duel against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the game which fell just a point shy of the ‘total’ a month ago, you would be a perfect 11-0 against Troy ‘totals’ this year. It’s not like this is a remarkably high scoring team. The Trojans are only averaging 70.0 total points per game this year. Don’t get us wrong. That’s a really high number, but it’s not as high as we have seen. Almost all of the Troy games have been lined in the 60s this year, which is proof of how remarkable it is that they all have made it past the number.
2 – The number of teams that started ranked in the Top 25 in the country that aren’t going to qualify for bowl games. The Northwestern Wildcats are 4-6 as it is, and they are seven-point underdogs this week to the Michigan State Spartans. The Florida Gators were once ranked in the Top 10 in the land, yet they have fallen to just 4-6. They are on the verge of not qualifying for a bowl, and though this week they’ll survive against an FCS school, they won’t likely be so lucky next week when they take on the Florida State Seminoles, who at that point will be two wins away from playing in the BCS National Championship Game.
10 – The number of years it has been since the Minnesota Golden Gophers beat the Wisconsin Badgers. This is the best shot in quite some time that the Gophers have had of running over to the Wisky sidelines to grab Paul Bunyan’s Axe, and though the point spread at +16.5 suggests they don’t have a chance, we are suggesting that there is at least the possibility that the Axe could change hands this year. Minnesota has quietly gotten itself into the back end of the Top 25 in the country, and that is definitely saying something. What else is saying something? The Golden Gophers are a Michigan State loss this week away from holding their own destiny to get into the Big Ten Championship Game.
41 – The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the week. Here we go again with the Michigan State Spartans, though this time, they are playing against a team which has a solid offense that can put up some points in the Northwestern Wildcats. In fact, the Nebraska Cornhuskers were able to get the ball moving with a somewhat similar looking offense against this Michigan State outfit and Northwestern might be able to do the same. There aren’t many teams that have taken a harder fall from grace over the course of the last two months than have the Wildcats though, and seeing MSU overwhelm them on the defensive side of the ball wouldn’t be a huge shocker.
47 – The most points that the Idaho Vandals have been beaten by in a game this year. The bad news for them is that that streak could not stay intact on Saturday and yet, they could still cover the spread. They’re getting 57.5 against the Florida State Seminoles in a game we are going to talk more about in just a second. However, it has to at least be encouraging for those wanting to back the Vandals to know that they have at least put up a bit of a fight in all of their games to date.
50 – The number of points that the Oklahoma Sooners scored in their two games which QB Trevor Knight started to start this season. Knight was controversially named the starting quarterback at the outset of the season, and it was a move that didn’t work well. It’s not that Knight only helped the team put 50 points on the board in the two games. It’s that those two games came against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks and a West Virginia Mountaineers team which has turned out to be one of the worst defensive clubs in the Big XII. Knight completed less than half of his passes and was routinely booed, but he is the only option that Head Coach Bob Stoops has left now that QB Blake Bell is recovering from a concussion for this week’s game against the Kansas State Wildcats.
53.3 – The number representing the percentage of games that road favorites have covered this year across all of college football. In the last month, that number is just under 60%. That’s a ridiculously high number, and it is proof that squares are having a pretty darn good year. This week, we don’t have all that many road favorites on the docket, though some of the notables include the Oregon Ducks, Arizona State Sun Devils, and Wisconsin Badgers.
57.5 – The number representing the biggest point spread of the week. The game at hand is one between the Florida State Seminoles and the Idaho Vandals. This probably shouldn’t be considered all that much of a surprise. Idaho might be the worst FBS team in the nation this year, and FSU has blown away back to back teams by matching 59-3 scores in conference play. Surely, stepping out of conference to play a pushover should be even easier, though we know that Head Coach Jimbo Fisher and the gang are going to be far more amped up to play the Florida Gators and the ACC Championship Game that follow than playing this one.
81 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the week. This week, we have an oddball team which is involved in the highest ‘total’ of the week, the Ohio State Buckeyes. When you think of Ohio State football in general, you have to think of hardnosed defense and relatively low scoring games. Not lately, though. Head Coach Urban Meyer has been out to prove a point that he has one of the best two teams in the country thanks to the longest winning streak in the nation at 22 games. Of course, it helps this ‘total’ that the Indiana Hoosiers are awful defensively, but when they get going offensively, they can flat out score. There were 101 points in the game between these two last season, one that OSU just barely hung on to win by a field goal.
213 – The number of yards the Kansas State Wildcats ran for last year against the Oklahoma Sooners. That’s a boatload of yards against a defense which is supposed to be one of the best in the Big XII. The Cats were 15.5-point underdogs last season, when they went on the road in Norman, and they picked up the huge upset that propelled them to ultimately be the #2 ranked team in the country for a long period of time before finally getting ousted by the Baylor Bears. If the Cats can get into the 200s in rushing yards again in this one, this could become a long day for the 20th ranked Sooners.
301 – The minimum number of passing yards that QB David Fales has had for the San Jose State Spartans in six of his last seven games. Just the nature of playing against the Navy Midshipmen, who shorten games with their triple option rushing attack, is going to make this a tough task again for Fales. However, you probably don’t remember the fact that he threw for over 4,000 yards last season on a San Jose State team which won 10 games. The Spartans could very well be playing for their right to go to a bowl game on Friday night, one which could very well come against these Midshipmen. They’re 5-5 with their last game of the season coming against the BCS hungry Fresno State Bulldogs.
634 – The number of yards that Boston College Eagles’ RB Andre Williams has rushed for over the course of the last two weeks. What BC has done to poor Williams is borderline inhumane. He has already rushed the ball 288 times this year, including 105 times in his last three games combined, and he leads the nation in rushing by nearly 500 yards. Interestingly enough, Williams doesn’t have a single reception out of the backfield, so there is no doubt that he is out of a play if he doesn’t get it on the snap. This has to be one of the most feared men in the entire ACC to try to stop outside of perhaps QB Jameis Winston of the Florida State Seminoles, and this week, it is going to be up to the Maryland Terrapins to try to slow this bull down.
1,175 – The minimum number of yards in the last three games between the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma State Cowboys. It shouldn’t be considered all that surprising, knowing that each of these teams have tremendous offenses which can go off for 600 or 700 yards on any given foe. Heck, Baylor is averaging nearly 700 yards of offense this year all by itself. QB Bryce Petty is an emerging Heisman Trophy candidate that you probably don’t know a whole heck of a lot about but probably should. The winner of this game is going to have a legitimate shot at playing for all of the marbles in Pasadena in January, while the loser is going to cling to hopes for an at large bid to the Fiesta Bowl or the Sugar Bowl in all likelihood, so the offensive stats should be flying once again in this one.