College Football Betting By the Numbers: Week 4
When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 4. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
1 – The number of games that feature a pair of Top 25 teams in action against one another this week. Oh sure, if you want to look at the Coaches’ Poll, you can make the case that the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Michigan State Spartans is a Top 25 battle, but we know better. The real game of the weekend is the one between the Stanford Cardinal and the Arizona State Sun Devils. It’s an interesting game for sure, knowing that both of these teams are in the thick of the fight in the Pac-12, and this is even a potential Rose Bowl preview. ASU doesn’t feel like it should be able to hang with Stanford, especially in Palo Alto, but the oddsmakers are giving the team a heck of a chance at just +7.
2 – The number of quarterbacks that were on the field at the same time last season for the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks when they took on the Baylor Bears. Oh sure, we have seen these Wildcat looks where someone aside from the quarterback takes the snap, but the Warhawks were actually using two QBs, a lefty and a righty, on the field at the same time. Both threw the ball on back to back plays. It’s gimmicky for sure, but it certainly worked for a bit last year. The approach caused Head Coach Art Briles to burn a timeout for Baylor in the second quarter. The end result for the Warhawks? They put up 560 yards and came just short, losing 47-42 in their upset bid of the Bears.
3 – The number of teams from the FBS that are favored by at least seven touchdowns against teams from the FCS. If you want to know what’s wrong with college football, it’s that right there. The fact that the Miami Hurricanes, Washington Huskies, and Ohio State Buckeyes, all of which have National Championship aspirations this season, can go out and play the Savannah State Tigers, Idaho State Bengals, and Florida A&M Rattlers respectively makes us sick. However, there are other teams like the Florida State Seminoles that are taking on the Bethune Cookman Wildcats, and though the point spread isn’t quite as big, it’s still equally disgusting.
8 – The number of consecutive seasons that the Florida Gators have trumped the Tennessee Volunteers SU. It hasn’t always been pretty, and UF is only a relatively modest 5-2-1 ATS in those eight games, but the wins are there, and in the SEC East, that’s crucial. Coach after coach has come and gone at UT without a victory over the orange and blue, and now, Head Coach Butch Jones is going to try his luck for the first time on Saturday as 16.5-point underdogs in Gainesville.
9 – The number of teams that still have perfect ATS records after playing three games this season. There are 11 others that are 2-0 (and the Toledo Rockets are 2-0-1), but the nine teams that we are about to list are literally the perfect ones of the bunch. Not surprisingly, the Maryland Terrapins and UCF Knights are both making headway towards the Top 25 in the land, the Oregon Ducks are starting to separate themselves as one of the truly elite teams in the country, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are upstarts with a walk on redshirt freshman quarterback throwing darts all over the field, the Washington State Cougars are flying high offensively, and the Wisconsin Badgers are still ranked in the Top 25. The rest of the bunch of 3-0 ATS teams include the Wyoming Cowboys, Florida Atlantic Owls, and the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners.
12.4 – The number of points per game that the SEC has beaten its foes by this year outside of conference play. The normally dominating SEC is only 21-6 SU this year outside of conference (and just 14-6 not including FCS games), and the conference is just 12-15 ATS for the season. Remember that the Toledo Rockets have covered a pair of SEC teams, the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs both lost outright as favorites against ACC clubs on the road, and most recently last week, the Oregon Ducks shelled the Tennessee Volunteers 59-14. Maybe this is the year that the SEC ultimately finally looks a bit flawed to the point that someone else could win the BCS National Championship.
16 – The number of covers that the NC State Wolfpack have in their last 21 games at home when facing a team with a winning road record. Hope you’re paying attention, Clemson Tigers! This is a game on Thursday that could be very dangerous for the Tigers, who are hoping to avoid “pulling a Clemson,” meaning losing a game that should have been won on the road. Remember last when the Florida State Seminoles “pulled a Florida State?” That was right here on this field at Carter Finley Stadium. The boys from Raleigh don’t take this 16-4-1 ATS record at home against teams with winning road records lightly, and there could be a real upset in the makings on Thursday.
25 – The number representing the percentage of games that the Boise State Broncos have covered in conference play over the course of their last 15 games. This is a stunning development for a team that is one of the best in the country from outside of the Big Six conferences. Boise State has always been a square team, and perhaps it is finally catching up with the club. The men from the Smurf Turf are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 conference games, many of which have come in the Mountain West (and the WAC prior to that). This week might be the toughest conference game the Broncos have ever played, having to go on the road to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs.
26 – The number of passes that the quarterbacks of the Florida State Seminoles have completed this year on first downs. The catch? It’s also the number of pass attempts that the quarterbacks of the Florida State Seminoles have had on first downs. Yes, QB Jameis Winston and QB Jacob Coker have combined to complete all 26 of their passes on first downs this year, and that’s just a tremendous stat, even for a team that has only played in two games thus far this year. Florida State gets to beat up on the Bethune Cookman Wildcats in this one (and yes, there are three Bethune Cookman references in this piece) on Saturday, but we’re more interested in seeing if this ridiculous 100% completion percentage on first downs can continue.
40.5 – The number representing the percentage of MAC games this year that have gone ‘over’ the ‘total’. When you think of the MAC, you think of a conference where defense is optional and points fly on the board at an insane pace. This year though, only the Buffalo Bulls and Northern Illinois Huskies are a combined 5-0 for ‘over’ bettors. The rest of the conference is 7-22 towards the ‘over’, including the Ohio Bobcats, Miami Redhawks, Massachusetts Minutemen, Toledo Rockets, and Western Michigan Broncos combining to go a perfect 14-0 for ‘under’ backers thus far on the young season.
41.5 – The number of points in the ‘total’ for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Michigan State Spartans, making it the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. What’s really amazing about this is that there are two TEAMS that are favored by more than this ‘total’ in this game (and the Alabama Crimson Tide might ultimately make it three by the time the games kick off on Saturday). That said, both of these teams have flat out awesome defenses, and save for the game last week against the Youngstown State Penguins, we have seen absolutely, positively nothing out of the MSU offense thus far this season.
43 – The number of points that the Louisville Cardinals are favored by over the Florida International Golden Panthers, making it the biggest spread of the weekend in games pitting a pair of FBS teams against one another. FIU is bad. Really, really bad. The Golden Panthers were trumped last week by the Bethune Cookman Wildcats by three scores in a game that was quite frankly never all that close. Now, it’s off to Papa John’s Stadium to take on a team that is one of the best in the nation and is one of the teams in surefire contention to win it all this season. QB Teddy Bridgewater and the gang need their style points, and you can bet that the Heisman Trophy favorite is going to be in for a big time game, at least in the half or three quarters of football that he’ll be on the field.
60 – The number of points that the Miami Hurricanes are favored by over the Savannah State Tigers this week. That’s as big of a number as you’re ever going to see on the college football betting lines, and it’s the biggest number of the week for sure. However, don’t think that this isn’t without its justification. The Tigers lost by 63 earlier this year to the Troy Trojans and were beaten last season 84-0 by the Oklahoma State Cowboys. If Miami wants to run up the score in this one, perhaps it is entirely possible to do so.
78.5 – The number of points in the ‘total’ for the Texas A&M Aggies and the SMU Mustangs, making it the highest ‘total’ of the week and of the season. This number actually opened at 83 and came shooting down, which makes us believe that the ‘under’ is almost certainly the right play to make. However, remember that the Texas A&M defense last week looked horrible, as it has looked all season long, and QB Johnny Manziel and the gang just put up a slew of points. Heck, Johnny Football all by himself had over 500 yards against what is supposed to be one of the best defenses in America. Anything is possible.
118 – The number of points that were put on the board last year in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. Impressed? So are we. What’s more notable might be the fact that the score was 58-43 at the end of the third quarter, as there were “only” 17 points scored in the fourth. G-Tech put up 30 in the third quarter alone, and there were a total of 14 offensive touchdowns scored in that game in tremendously remarkable form, and there were nearly 1,100 yards of total offense.
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