When you bet on NCAA Football, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NCAA football betting lines for Week 5. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of games that the Fresno State Bulldogs will be favored in by less than 10 points for the rest of the season in all likelihood. Seriously, look at this schedule and tell us that this isn’t a BCS team. Fresno State has to travel to Hawaii and Idaho, then host UNLV and travel to San Diego State. Nevada at home could be a remote challenge, as could a roadie at Wyoming, but from there, it’s New Mexico and San Jose State. There’s no way that this team is getting into the MWC Championship Game at less than 12-0, and that game is clearly going to be for the right to crash the BCS.
4 – The number of consecutive road games that the Ole Miss Rebels have covered against the Alabama Crimson Tide. That’s definitely a bit of a “Yo!” number, if we do say so ourselves. The Rebs have a lot of that feel of last year’s Texas A&M Aggies outfit, the one that came into Tuscaloosa and won. It’s not likely that Head Coach Hugh Freeze and the Rebels pull off the upset in this one, as they are 17-point underdogs, but we have seen a lot crazier things happen before than what could be seeing in Alabama this weekend.
4.5 – The number of games that it has been since the Iowa State Cyclones have scored a rushing touchdown. It’s not all that often that we get to talk about the boys from Ames, but we are going to do so in this one. QB Sam Richardson is a mobile quarterback, and you’d figure that would be enough to get the team into the end zone every now and again on the ground. However, that just clearly hasn’t been the case, and it is odd how the lack of rushing touchdowns almost corresponds to the time that Richardson took over as the starter in his freshman year in 2012. One of those games with no rushing TDs came last year in the Liberty Bowl against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, the same team that is on the docket this week on the road on Thursday.
5 – The number of consecutive games that the Georgia Bulldogs have covered against SEC opponents. We get on the case of QB Aaron Murray a lot for not winning the big time games, but what more do you want out of him? He put 35 on the board against the Clemson Tigers in Week 1 and 41 on the board against the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 2. Oh yes, and he scored 45 against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and 28 against the Alabama Crimson Tide… we could go on and on. This is another one of these games against a big time defense that many expect Murray to fold in, but maybe that shouldn’t be the case.
8 – The number of consecutive games that the BYU Cougars have covered in a row off of SU losses. We have seen this play out once already this season following the loss to the Virginia Cavaliers, as the Cougs came back and smacked the Texas Longhorns. Can they continue to be the most resilient team in America? Odds have it, the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are in some trouble. If there is some hope for the Blue Raiders, it’s that BYU is just 1-4 in its last five games played here in Provo, though once again, that one exception came earlier this year against Texas.
13 – The number of times that the Utah State Aggies sacked QB David Fales last year when they took on the San Jose State Spartans. Yes, you’re reading that right. 13 sacks. That’s just two shy of the FBS record of 15 that was set in 2000 when the TCU Horned Frogs did it to the Nevada Wolf Pack. Fales had -98 rushing yards on the day, and the 13 sacks cost San Jose State 104 yards of total offense. Think that Fales is going to make sure that his life insurance policy is paid up before he takes the field in this one on Friday night?
15 – The number of rushing yards that the Oklahoma Sooners had last year against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. That’s an amazingly low number, even for a team that was known to put the ball in the air a ton. That was a testament to just how good that Notre Dame defense really was in that magical 2012 season. This version of the Golden Domers… not so much. The defense has allowed gobs of rushing yards at times because the front seven has been decimated due to graduation, and Oklahoma is a lot more of a running team now than before. Don’t be shocked if the Sooners have 15 times their 15 rushing yards in this year’s game.
34 – The number of years that it has been since the Kentucky Wildcats beat the Florida Gators. We talk about it every year when this game comes up, and this season isn’t an exception. The question is whether it is the year that UK can break the hex. The team is a 13-point underdog in this one, but QB Jeff Driskel is now out for the season. It worked last week against the Tennessee Volunteers for the orange and blue, but QB Tyler Murphy is going to be in for a lot more of a fight in this game against a Kentucky team that will be prepared for his mobility. This is the game that Head Coach Mark Stoops can really make a statement, especially at home against one of his team’s biggest rivals.
37 – The number of points that the Oregon Ducks are favored by over the California Golden Bears, making them the biggest favorites of the weekend. Get used to hearing about this game this week… Oregon though, is the only team that is laying more than 28.5 points, making it the biggest margin between the highest favorite and the next highest favorite of all of the FBS vs. FBS games. Keep in mind as well, that there isn’t a single game featuring an FCS team against an FBS team, so this is legitimately quite possibly the biggest blowout of the weekend.
41.5 – The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend, and it comes in the very first kickoff of the week between the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. These two teams know each other well, and this is another one of these pivotal games in the ACC Coastal Division. Both teams are coming off of hard fought wins last week, and both know that they are in for a slug fest just five days later in Atlanta. Five of the last six have failed to reach the ‘total’ in this game, including last season when V-Tech won 20-17 in overtime in a game that was 7-7 going into the fourth quarter.
84 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. The game of course, is the one between the Oregon Ducks and the California Golden Bears. We’re speaking a lot about that game today, and for good reason, as there should be more numbers amassed in this game than any other game. The highest ‘total’ that we have on record is 84, and this one very well could surpass that number when push comes to shove.
88.9 – The combined number of points per game that the New Mexico State Aggies and the San Diego State Aztecs have allowed thus far this season. These two teams have been crazily bad, but in fairness to them, they have both played horrid schedules to date. New Mexico has already had two games in which it was at least a 44-point underdog in, and San Diego State has already played a pair of teams that could reasonably end up in the Rose Bowl when push comes to shove. There’s a reason though, that these two teams are 0-7 between them, though someone (likely San Diego State) will get its first ‘W’ this weekend.
93.3 – The number of offensive plays per game that the California Golden Bears are averaging this year under first year Head Coach Sonny Dykes. Is it really possible that the Oregon Ducks are going to be playing against a team that runs offense faster than they do? Cal is averaging over 20 plays per game more than the Ducks are right now, and that’s unbelievable to think about considering how many points Oregon has put on the board. Now, can you imagine if the Quack Attack is ever forced into a real game how many plays that they can run? Cal has generally been playing from behind all year.
131 – The number of points that the Florida State Seminoles have outdone their three opponents by this year. FSU isn’t known as one of the best ATS teams in America, and in fact, practically year in and year out, the team underachieves at crazy proportions and has largely been one of the best fades in the nation. That said, this year appears to be a bit different, as the oddsmakers just haven’t been able to figure out how to line this team this year with QB Jameis Winston calling the shots. We all knew that Winston was going to be good, but no one really figured that he would be THIS good.
716 – The number of yards that the Texas A&M Aggies dropped on the Arkansas Razorbacks last year when these two teams met as members of the SEC for the first time. It was the most yards that one team has ever dropped on the other in this series, and QB Johnny Manziel had over 550 yards all by himself. Arkansas’ defense is going to be improved from last year, and it will help as well that the team has made a huge commitment to the running game in 2013 with Head Coach Bret Bielema now calling the shots. That said, this isn’t going to be a game where the Hogs have much of a chance if QB Brandon Allen doesn’t play, and Johnny Football could be set for another outrageous game as a result.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.