If you’ve been having trouble handicapping the big games in college football this season, here’s a quick tip; in games matching two ranked teams, look at their rankings and take the team with the lower number. That simple system has worked well this season, and provided a winning set of selections this past weekend.
Three games matched two teams ranked in the USA Today’s Top 25 over the weekend. All three of those games were won by the higher-ranked teams, and all three covered the pointspreads. No. 1 Oklahoma put a hurtin’ on No. 10 Texas, hanging a 55-17 loss on the ‘Horns and covering as 11-point favorites; No. 2 LSU flogged No. 18 Florida 41-11, covering as 14-point favorites; And No. 12 Arkansas edged toward the top 10 with a 38-14 victory over No. 23 Auburn, covering as 10-point chalk.
So on the season, of the 19 games that have matched ranked teams, the higher-ranked outfits have won 13 of those games straight-up, and are a profitable 13-5-1 vs. the pointspreads.
This week offers up four more games featuring two ranked teams. As of Monday morning BetOnline.com is listing No. 19 Michigan State as three-point home favorites for its in-state rivalry game with No. 10 Michigan; No. 23 Texas A&M is a 9.5-point home favorite over No. 24 Baylor; No. 7 Oklahoma State is favored by 7.5 points at No. 21 Texas; and No. 9 Oregon is favored by 15 points at home over No. 20 Arizona State.
Ranked teams had a very good weekend playing against unranked opponents, winning 16 of 17 games SU and going 12-5 ATS. The only ranked team to lose to an unranked foe was No. 22 Florida State, which got upset at Wake Forest. So on the season ranked teams are now 91-11 SU vs. unranked opponents, and 55-44 ATS.
The list of the biggest pointspread upsets of the weekend is topped by Western Kentucky, which won at Middle Tennessee State Thursday night 36-33 as 10.5-point underdogs. Other shockers included Wake beating FSU 35-30 as 10-point dogs; Buffalo beating Ohio 38-37 as 8.5-point underdogs; and Rutgers pounding Pittsburgh 34-10 as 6.5-point dogs.
For week 7 BetOnline is listing Buffalo as 20-point underdogs at Temple; Rutgers at -3.5 over Navy; Western Kentucky at +3 at Florida Atlantic; and Wake Forest at +6.5 at home vs. Virginia Tech.
Last weekend the four teams that pulled the biggest upsets in week 5 went 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.
Finally, the highest over/unders on the board over the weekend split right down the middle, going 5-5. Oklahoma State and Kansas went OVER 74.5, Texas A&M and Texas Tech played OVER 72, Iowa State and Baylor went OVER 64, and Michigan/Northwestern and Oregon State/Arizona both went OVER 60. Meanwhile, Houston and East Carolina played UNDER 74.5, Oregon and Cal went UNDER 65.5, Arkansas and Auburn stayed UNDER 65, Georgia Tech and Maryland went way UNDER 64.5, and Stanford and Colorado played UNDER 62.
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