Using the word “lock” in sports betting has always been frowned upon. Most sports betting gamblers consider it a jinx and a bad omen when claiming that a game is a lock. I however am not afraid to use the label. In my opinion it just means that it is the best play on the board. It is the one game that is the closest thing to a sure bet on the football schedule. While there is no such thing as a sure-bet, liking a play very much is not a problem.
This week that play is the Georgia Bulldogs. They battle the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the game will be played in Athens Georgia. The latest college football betting odds have the Bulldogs listed as seven point favorites in this game. That is a bit of a surprise alone as Georgia has struggled this year and Mississippi State has held national rankings and has a forgivable loss to LSU. After all the Tigers are now number one in many of the college football polls. Show why the big number? It’s all about matchups.
The trends have a mixed bag of results. Georgia is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as a favorite, 8-17-1 against the spread in their last 26 SEC games, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games. Mississippi State is 1-4 against the spread in their last five SEC games, 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as a road underdog, and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight October games. The key number to pull out of this mess is the fact that Mississippi State struggles as a road underdog. Winning on the SEC highway is never easy and they have trouble keeping the games close.
Aaron Murray leads Georgia at quarterback and has looked better and better as the season evolves. Georgia has lost to some very talented teams this year and so the record should not be an area of concern. Georgia will win this game going away in blowout fashion and easily cover the number.
Take the Georgia bulldogs -7 as the lock of the week in college football.