In college football, every week there is an upset. Sometimes it is a very subtle upset and other times it is monumental and rocks the foundation of the college football world. Last week Texas tech defeated Oklahoma at home and it was a monumental upset. Sports bettors that took the underdog had an easy victory as it was never in jeopardy. This week there is another upset like that in college football, but if you don’t look for it, you may miss it.
In the Pac-12 the California Golden Bears take on the UCLA Bruins. The UCLA Bruins have been a disappointment this year and so it is no surprise that they are home underdogs in this game. The Bears opened up as six point favorites and since then the line has moved to 5 in several sportsbooks around the world. The majority of the early betting public is on the Bears, so the reverse line movement becomes a sign that the underdog is the way to go.
The sports betting trends indicate a play on the Bears would be a mistake. The Golden Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.
The Bruins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record, the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings, and the Golden Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in UCLA.
This game has upset written all over it. The Bears are a good team, but they do not warrant such a big line. The UCLA Bruins are capable of winning this game and will be one of the many upsets this week.