College Football Week 13 System Picks
One subject that we’ve touched upon several times in relation to college football handicapping is momentum. Teams that are on a roll often continue to play at a high level, while those teams who are laboring a bit will see a their poor results continue.
One of the most profitable situations in college football over the past 20 years involves finding a team that is at the top of its game and facing a team that is struggling defensively. To put it in concrete terms; teams that allowed 36 or more points in their previous game and are now playing a team that won each of its last two games by at least 28 points, are just 60-123-1 (32.8%) against the spread.
This week there are two teams that find themselves in this spot, North Carolina State and Idaho.
North Carolina State hosts East Carolina and the Pirates enter the game off of a 63-14 victory over UAB and defeated Tulsa 58-24 in their game before that one. The Wolfpack lost to Boston College 38-21 last week and after starting out the season 3-1, have dropped their last six games.
The teams haven’t met since 2010 and this was a game that you could count on East Carolina to make a good showing against the “big name” school, but the Pirates do have Marshall up in six days for the Conference USA East title. East Carolina may be looking ahead a bit, but still have to believe the Pirates think of this as a big game.
Florida State could also be guilty of looking-ahead a bit, as they have the traditional rivalry game with the Florida Gators on tap, but will it matter? The Seminoles can name the score in this one and you know they will want to win by a comfortable margin to appease the BCS gods, but will they win by 57? There’s no reason to think that they won’t.
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