On most Sunday afternoons when the majority of sports bettors are glued to their televisions watching the day’s NFL games, another group of bettors are staring intently at their computer monitors or computer screens. That’s when the lines for the following week’s games are released and the initial line movement that takes place usually bears watching.
It isn’t the general public who are wagering on college football games that will be played six days later, but instead tends to be sharper bettors who are prepared to take advantage of soft lines that are posted. By the time most bettors see the lines for the upcoming week, they have been wagered into and are a bit sharper than when they were released.
When the lines were released for this week, the oddsmakers made Auburn a 3-point favorite over Missouri on the basis of their back-to-back victories over Alabama and Georgia. The initial group of bettors wasn’t as impressed with Auburn, however, as they were quickly bet down to -1.5, and the general public has since moved the line to Auburn-2.
There are several other reasons to think the Missouri Tigers may be a decent wager this Saturday, as they have a more balanced attack than Auburn and are a better defensive team, allowing no more than 28 points in any one game this season. Auburn allowed an average of 22.5 points this season.
Auburn was ranked No. 13 in the Southeastern Conference in pass defense, which does not bode well when going up against the Missouri duo of Dorial Green-Beckham and L’Damian Washington, who combined for 18 touchdown receptions on the season.
Auburn will benefit slightly from the game being played at the Georgia Dome, but don’t believe it will be enough to slow down the Missouri defense, which limited Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel to 216 total yards last week (195 passing and 21 rushing), his lowest output of the season.
If not for a fourth-quarter meltdown against South Carolina, which resulted in a double-overtime loss, Missouri could be undefeated and would be roughly a 3-point favorite in the game. It’s interesting to note that Missouri kicker Andrew Baggett was 1-of-3 on field goals in the game and missed a 24-yarder that would have sent the game to a third overtime. Sounds a bit like Alabama against Auburn, doesn’t it?
Taking the better defensive team with points is never a bad idea and should be the way to go in this one.
Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.