College Football Week 4 System Picks
One of the most difficult aspects of handicapping college football is trying to determine the emotional state of a team off of a close win. Will that translate into positive momentum for the squad’s upcoming game or it will it set in motion the obvious effects of a letdown?
One situation where teams coming off a victory have shown a tendency to letdown is when they win an overtime game and then travel on the road as a favorite. Teams in this situation are just 30-44-2 against the spread, which is just 40.5%. When these teams are made a double-digit favorite, the record drops to 6-11-1 (35.3%).
There is one team which falls into both of these categories this week and that’s the Oregon State Beavers, who defeated Utah 51-48 in Salt Lake City last Saturday and now travel to San Diego to face the Aztecs. The Beavers are favored by 10 points at Bookmaker and BetDSI.
Oregon State may have been a bit lucky to win last week, as they were outgained by nearly 50 yards and committed 10 penalties, but Utah quarterback Travis Wilson threw three second-half interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown, while the Beavers didn’t cough the ball up a single time.
There are several other trends that point to the Aztecs, including their 8-0 ATS record after back-to-back straight losses followed with a bye week.
Oregon State’s loss to Eastern Washington looked even worse after Toledo manhandled the Eagles last week, gaining 530 total yards, including 325 on the ground, while the Beavers were just able to gain 105 rushing yards against EWU and Storm Woods, who had 68 of those yards is expected to miss the contest.
San Diego State opened the season with a forgettable loss to Eastern Illinois, as the Panthers broke open a tie game in the third quarter with three straight touchdowns. Aztecs quarterback Adam Dingwell threw four interceptions and coupled with his 0-for-5 effort against Ohio State, has been benched in favor of Quinn Kaehler.
It’s better news for the Aztecs on the injury front, as Adam Muema, the team’s leading rusher with over 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns last season, is expected to play and is relatively healthy for the first time all season. He has been limited to just 13 carries in San Diego State’s first two games.
It may be hard to have a lot of confidence in San Diego State after the way the Aztecs have looked so far this season, but they do have enough positives to be worth a wager.
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