October 4, 2013

College Football Week 6 System Picks

One of the biggest free falls in college football history is happening right now before our eyes with the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. This was a team that posted 18 consecutive winning seasons and appeared in 10 consecutive bowl games between 2002 and 2011.

The 2011 Golden Eagles had the best year in school history, winning the Conference USA championship and defeating Nevada 24-17 in the Hawaii Bowl to give them a school-record 12 victories. The team boasted an all-time 548-358 record after the 2011 season, good for a winning percentage of 60.5%.

The bottom fell out for Southern Mississippi in 2012, as the team didn’t win a single game, despite having 10 starters back from the 2011 squad, and has continued through 2013, as Southern Miss is 0-4 and coming off a 60-7 drubbing at the hands of Boise State.

So it might be a bit of a surprise to see that Southern Miss is not only favored this week, but they are favored by 16.5 points over Florida International. The Golden Eagles have yet to score more than 15 points in any of their four games this season.

While it might seem prudent to take the road underdog, Southern Miss does fall into several nice situations, with the first being home favorites of more than 14 points off of four consecutive losses are 30-22-1 (57.7%) since 1990. If you look at home favorites of more than 16 points, your winning percentage will climb even higher, as these teams are 24-16-1 (60%) over the years.

One other situation involves double-digit home favorites who have scored 13 or fewer points in each of their last three games. It doesn’t happen often, but these teams are 12-8 (60%) and home favorites of two touchdowns or more who scored seven or fewer points in each of their last two games are 14-10-1, or 58.3%.

The line has trap written all over it, but have to believe that Southern Miss will end its losing streak in style and get the cover this week.

Share it now!
The following two tabs change content below.

Cole Ryan

Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.

Leave a Reply