It’s Monday night, and that means that there is just one more game with which to handicap on the NFL card. The San Diego Chargers will play host to the Indianapolis Colts in this edition of Monday Night Football, and we have some great MNF props covered so you can find an alternative way to beat the NFL betting lines in this one.
Total Touchdowns in the Game Under 6 – It feels like it would take a whole heck of a lot to get to seven touchdowns in this game in totality. The Colts have only allowed four passing touchdowns all season long, and we have to remember that they haven’t really played one of those tremendous offensive games this year. Last week’s game against the Seattle Seahawks featured a pair of special teams touchdowns, and those don’t happen all that often. The bomb touchdowns to WR TY Hilton will happen from time to time, but they aren’t going to be the norm either. The Chargers have been getting a lot of hype of late for their offense, which has at least 400 passing yards three times this year, but it’s not translating into touchdowns all that often. Both teams would have to find the end zone three times in this game for this prop to work, and that’s a tough assumption to make.
Indianapolis Colts To Score Longest Touchdown of the Game – It’s only a -115 prop, but we have to think that Indy is the favored side from that standpoint. WR TY Hilton has the ability to return punts for touchdowns, and he can be a tremendously explosive receiver as well. We saw him hook up with QB Andrew Luck a ton of times on these bombs last season, and that’s why he averaged nearly 20 yards per catch. Hilton might do it in this game, and he might not, but again, most of your long touchdowns come in the passing game. The Colts have given up just four passing TDs all year long. We’ll take our chances that the long touchdown is scored by the visitors more often than it is by the hosts.
Philip Rivers Under 290.5 Passing Yards – Stop it. The oddsmakers have totally gotten this one wrong. Rivers is a much better passer this year with Head Coach Mike McCoy than he ever was with Head Coach Norv Turner calling the shots, but this is still a man that isn’t going to throw for anywhere near 5,000 yards on the season. Throwing for over 400 yards three times in five games isn’t going to be the norm by any stretch of the imagination, and Rivers should come back to earth in this one against what has been a very good secondary thus far this season. Only one time has Indy allowed a 300+ yard passer on the season, and this doesn’t figure to be another one of those games more often than not. Remember that the two games that Rivers didn’t throw for at least 400 yards, he didn’t even throw for 200 yards. This could be a slam dunk victory for us.
Danny Woodhead Under 49.5 Receiving Yards – Woodhead is the player du jour right now for the Chargers, and we totally understand it. The Bolts have always loved using their rushers to catch the ball out of the backfield, and Woodhead is doing a great job of that. The only way that we see this happening though, is if Rivers ends up falling into a deep hole and RB Ryan Mathews basically gets taken out of the game. Woodhead is a great third down back, and he’s good in the passing game, but the Colts know what the game plan is, and you can bet when he is on the field that Woodhead is becoming a tremendous priority to guard. Over 50 receiving yards for a running back is tough to get.
Darrius Heyward-Bey Under 33.5 Receiving Yards – It’s not a great price on Heyward-Bey, but remember that he didn’t have a single catch last week against the Seahawks, and he might not have one this time around either. RB Trent Richardson’s arrival has really give Head Coach Chuck Pagano the ability to run it more and take the pressure off of Luck as a passer. Heyward-Bey is the fourth receiving option on the field when he even makes it out there, and we think that it is showing. If he isn’t stretching the field, he isn’t worthwhile, and since Luck already has a massive rapport with Hilton when we’re talking about the deep ball, we don’t see how Heyward-Bey really fits into this game plan. Maybe he gets a catch or two, but it is unlikely that Heyward-Bey gets to 34 yards for just the second time this year on this night.
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.