Sunday, Nov. 3, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
Pointspread: Indianapolis -2.5
Total Line: 44.5
The Colts come off of their bye week with a chance to bury the defending AFC South champs while padding their two-game lead, so it is safe to call this a pivotal matchup in the division. Indianapolis has gone an impressive 5-2 in its first seven games including victories over Seattle, San Francisco and Denver as an underdog. It is 4-3 against the spread and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the seven games.
While Andrew Luck has done a great job at avoiding a sophomore slump at quarterback by making the plays when he has to, it is the Colts’ running game that has been the driving force behind the team’s success on offense. The addition of Trent Richardson earlier in the season along with Donald Brown gives them that one-two punch in the backfield they were looking for. The loss of Reggie Wayne in the passing game will only make this duo more important to this team. Another plus is the fact that Indianapolis is ranked eighth in the NFL in both scoring points (26.7) and points allowed (18.7).
Houston has been the team to beat in the AFC South for the past few seasons, but a 2-5 SU start has it on the brink of disaster should it lose this game on Sunday night. Making matters worse for anyone who has been wagering on this team is a 1-6 record ATS. The Texans did cover their last time out in a 17-16 loss to Kansas City on Oct. 20 as seven-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER the 38.5-point line in that game and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games.
If this team is going to turn things around it looks like it will be behind second-year quarterback Case Keenum, who has been tagged as the new starter for an ineffective Matt Schaub. Against the Chiefs, Keenum went 15-for-25 for 271 yards and one touchdown, which apparently was good enough for him to get the nod against the Colts. Anything would probably be an improvement for an offense that is ranked 30th in the league in scoring with an average of 17.4 points a game.
Free NFL Pick
This series is tied 3-3 SU over the last six meetings with the home team winning each game. That was when the overall edge in talent went to Houston. The changing of the guard in this division will be complete after Sunday night with a Colts’ victory on the road that covers the 2.5 points.
Indianapolis 27 Houston 17
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.