Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: July 27, 8:07 p.m., ET
Probable Starters: LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-5, 3.39) v. SF: Jake Peavy (First NL start)
Moneyline: LA Dodgers -120
Total: 7 -110/-110
Jake Peavy will make his National League debut just a day after being officially acquired by the San Francisco Giants from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for a couple of minor league pitchers. Peavy will draw a very tough assignment in his first National League start since June 8, 2009 as a member of the San Diego Padres when he takes on Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers. The Giants and Dodgers have gone back and forth atop the NL West this season and the Dodgers reassumed the top spot in the NL West with a 5-0 win on Saturday night behind ace Clayton Kershaw, who was spectacular in a two-hit shutout.
Though overshadowed by Kershaw, Ryu has been excellent this season in 19 starts with an 11-5 record and a 3.39 ERA. In his second season since coming over from South Korea, the 27-year-old Ryu’s control has improved, dropping his walk rate to just 4.7 percent. Surprisingly, Ryu has struggled at home this season, despite the pitcher-friendly conditions at Dodger Stadium, but he’s made up for it on the road where he has a 2.73 ERA. Two starts ago, Ryu was blasted by the Tigers as he gave up seven runs in 2.1 innings to raise his ERA by 57 points. In his two outings since, Ryu has a 15/1 K/BB ratio and has allowed two earned runs in 13 innings.
Peavy goes from last in the AL East to first in the NL West with the trade to San Francisco. He was just 1-9 with a 4.72 ERA for Boston, but the Red Sox gave him very little run support. He led the league in lowest run support and had gotten two runs of support in each of his last eight starts. Since Peavy last won a start on April 25, he is 0-9 in 15 starts with a 5.34 ERA and opposing batters have posted an .830 OPS. At 33, and with a spotty medical history, Peavy has averaged less than 90 mph with his fastball and his breaking stuff isn’t as sharp.
Ryu will be making his 50th career start and eighth career start against the Giants, which is the most of any team Ryu has faced. He’s 3-3 with a 3.24 ERA in those seven previous starts with a 23/14 K/BB ratio, far below his career numbers. This season, Ryu has a win and a loss in two starts with a 6.00 ERA. Peavy will be facing the Dodgers for the 26th time in his career. He’s 14-2 with a 2.21 ERA, but he has only faced them once since 2009. The Dodgers are 11-8 in Ryu’s 19 starts for a profit of just 0.27 units. The Red Sox were 5-15 in Peavy’s 20 starts for a loss of 13.73 units, making Peavy the worst bet in baseball this season. This will be his first start for the Giants.
Pick: Los Angeles
The move to the NL and a much better pitcher’s park should help Peavy over the course of the season, but it’s been a whirlwind of emotions this week for Peavy as he returns to the West Coast and his mindset should definitely be in question. Ryu is throwing the ball very well sans that start against the Tigers and Peavy has not just been the victim of bad run support, he hasn’t pitched well at all.
Adam Burke is a freelance writer and amateur handicapper with a knack for finding value through matchup analysis and a deep understanding of the sports betting market. His main area of expertise is baseball, with a background in sabermetrics and advanced statistics. He is the host of The Gridiron Gambling Report and our college football and college basketball BangTheBook.com podcasts on the BlogTalkRadio Network.