(4-3, 3-4 ATS)
(4-4, 4-4 ATS)
The World’s Largest Cocktail Party takes on some extra meaning this year, as the SEC East crown could be on the line in this NCAA football betting affair between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Florida Gators.
The struggles of the Gators have been well documented of late, and we have made a real killing going against them in recent weeks. The blue and orange have just had no offense whatsoever to speak of, and this unit has been kept in single digits by two of its last three foes, something that was absolutely unheard of in the QB Tim Tebow era. An offense that ranks just No. 89 in the country at 329.0 yards per game has had an extra week to prepare for this one, and when push really comes to shove, that extra time had better have been used to make a change. Either QB John Brantley needs to be used more as a pure passer, perhaps under center, or QB Trey Newton, the team’s top touchdown scorer, needs to be inserted into the lineup more often. WR Chris Rainey could be back in the lineup this weekend after serving a suspension over the last few weeks, and that could make all the difference in the world as well. Florida’s defense did have one terrible game against the LSU Tigers and a horrifying half against the Alabama Crimson Tide, but if you take those two things out, it has held all of its foes in the teens this year.
Georgia looks like a totally different team on the field with WR AJ Green in the mix. This offense all of a sudden looks totally different from the three SEC tussles to start the year. In those three, the Dawgs only scored an average of 14.0 points per game and never scored more than 24 points. Now, in their last three against the Tennessee Volunteers, Vanderbilt Commodores, and Kentucky Wildcats, they have scored at least 41 points in all three and have averaged 42.3 points per game. QB Aaron Murray isn’t lighting the world on fire, as he only has thrown for 887 yards in his last four games. However, he does have seven TDs against just one INT in that stretch, proving that Green is changing the way defenses are approaching this offense. Defensively, one might be surprised to find that the Bulldogs actually rank No. 19 in the land at 306.8 yards per game allowed and No. 30 in scoring at 19.1 points per game allowed, and that’s all after giving up a ton of real estate in a 44-31 win over the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington last week.
There are just too many things going against Georgia here, though. Remember who those three wins were played against… Vandy, Tennessee, and Kentucky aren’t quite the same level of Florida, even if the Gators are down this year. UF is just coming off of its toughest stretch of schedule for the season, and it has had two weeks to prepare for this one. This is also always a de facto home game for Florida, which draws more fans to Jacksonville than UGA does. Add that all to the fact that the perception is great for the Dawgs and horrid for the Gators, and it all adds up to an “upset” that really shouldn’t be classified as such.
College Football Free Pick: Florida Gators +3