2013 College Football Pick of the Week – Week 10
Date/Time: November 2nd, 8:00 PM ET
College Football Betting Odds from WagerWeb
Spread: Florida State -22
Here at Bang the Book, we are always keeping our eyes open for the best games to bet on each and every week. Of all of the games on the Week 10 docket, the one we are zeroing in on is the game where the Florida State Seminoles host the Miami Hurricanes at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 2nd.
We’re just rolling along at 8-1 ATS thus far this year in our college football picks of the week, and for the third straight week, we are going to be going with a big favorite that we think is going to cover the number. However, this time around, this clearly goes against common logic, as we think that the oddsmakers have severely overrated what this Top 10 Miami team can legitimately do when push comes to shove.
It’s tough to not consider Miami a Top 10 team at this point. It is the lowest ranked BCS conference team without a blemish this season, and it’s true that it is probably six wins away from playing for the BCS National Championship. However, this game is certainly going to come against Florida State, and the ACC Championship Game would probably be the same matchup as well, and neither matchup is likely to be all that fun.
The Hurricanes don’t really have a signature win now that we look back at it. The game against the Florida Gators looked huge at the time, but now that Florida is out of the Top 25, there isn’t a game on the docket in which the team has played against a Top 35 or so team. The biggest margin of victory in games not including the Savannah State Tigers was only 28 points over the South Florida Bulls and the Florida Atlantic Owls, and neither of those teams are even remotely good. Plus, go ahead and factor in the fact that both the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the North Carolina Tar Heels had Miami dead to rights over the course of the last two games.
QB Stephen Morris really hasn’t looked good for most of this season, and though he is averaging over nine yards per pass attempt, he has 10 TDs against eight picks this year. Morris has a terrible history of trying to make things happen against the Florida State defense, and this is going to be the first time this year that he takes on one of the elite defenses in the country with pass rushers that are going to get on his backside. Morris has only been sacked six times all season long.
The ground game for Miami is good, but it’s not as good as it is advertised to be. Having 19 rushing touchdowns this time of year is a great number, but again, the schedule suggests that there should be a lot of rushing touchdowns. RB Duke Johnson is legitimately going to be one of the most talented players on the field, but he isn’t as good as his early season Heisman candidacy suggests.
FSU’s schedule hasn’t exactly been top of the line this year, but save for a game against the Boston College Eagles, there isn’t a duel on the docket in which the team didn’t ultimately send its foes packing with their tails between their legs. The lowest scoring game this season was 41 points in the opener against the Pittsburgh Panthers, and the only time that the team surrendered more than 17 points was in that 48-34 win over Boston College in Chestnut Hill.
Here at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, the Seminoles have been deadly this year. Oh sure, they didn’t cover last week, but anyone who watched that game against the NC State Wolfpack realizes that the game was 35-0 at the end of the first quarter, and FSU spent the rest of the game laughing its butt off.
These Seminoles look a lot like the old Seminoles who used to kick butt and take names. The level of domination is there in their minds, and many think that this team looks a ton like the 1993 team that won the school’s first National Championship. Playing the role of QB Charlie Ward is QB Jameis Winston, who also could end up winning the Heisman Trophy this year. Instead of RB Warrick Dunn, RB Devonta Freeman continues to pile up yards in short spurts. Instead of WR Peter Warrick and the gang, the team has WR Kenny Shaw and WR Rashad Greene. Is the offensive line as good now as it was in ’93? No, it isn’t. But the defense is every bit as ferocious.
There isn’t a game left on the schedule in which the Seminoles will be less than double digit favorites, and there isn’t a game after this week in which the team will be favored by less than 28 in all likelihood until the game against the aforementioned Gators in the Swamp.
This is a series that goes in spurts. Florida State dominated this series in the 90s, but in the early-2000s, it was all Miami. FSU has won six of the last eight games in this series now. The Hurricanes have stuck within 13 and four in the last two seasons, but this game is going to be different. This is a different bunch of Seminoles with a much different mindset, and we think they are going to absolutely blow the doors off of Miami to retake the #2 spot in the BCS this coming week from the Oregon Ducks.
Week 10 College Football Pick of the Week: Florida State Seminoles -22