Date/Time: September 7th, 3:30 PM ET
Spread: Missouri -17.5
Here at Bang the Book, we are always keeping our eyes open for the best games to bet on each and every week. Of all of the games on the Week 2 docket, the one we are zeroing in on is the game where the Missouri Tigers host the Toledo Rockets at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 7th.
Last week, we got in on the Rockets at +23.5 and ended up covering with them with ease, and we are going to be back at it again on Missouri. Once again, we have a situation where the public is going to be backing the boys from the SEC, as there is nearly 60% of the early betting action coming in on Mizzou. Most are looking at the fact that the Tigers dropped 58 on the Murray State Racers and the fact that Toledo was arguably a snap away from not covering the spread against Florida. We however, see it completely differently.
The Rockets didn’t get anything going offensively against the Gators, and yet they still had a defense that was good enough to hold their foes down to just 24 points offensively. Florida did get plenty of yards with 415, but the defensive line consistently got pressure on QB Jeff Driskel, especially in the second and third quarters of the game.
Toledo is going to get more than 205 yards of offense against this Missouri defense as well. QB Terrance Owens really had nothing going on Saturday, though his receivers dropped a heck of a lot of passes. RB David Fluellen, when he had some room, was one of the most lethal players on the field on either side. He finished with 88 yards in spite of the fact that he only had 12 touches of the football. Against Missouri, there should definitely be some more holes there to bust through, and we fully expect that Fluellen is going to come up with a big time day on the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield.
We aren’t going to try to underplay the value of the Tigers this year. Missouri isn’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. QB James Franklin went 26-of-38 for 318 yards and three scores against Murray State last week, and RB Henry Josey got off to a fantastic start by rumbling for 113 yards on 13 carries.
However, this Mizzou offense is the same type of offense that we see out of a lot of teams from the MAC. It’s not the pure smash-mouth type of offense that gave Toledo problems when it ran up against Florida.
The line shading here is also something that we are concerned about for the Tigers. Florida was a 23.5-point favorite against Toledo, and now, after the Rockets covered that number, they’re catching 17.5? Doesn’t it feel as though Missouri is a lot more than six points worse than Florida is?
To us, it seems as though the Rockets should be about +10 in this game and absolutely no more. As we said in Week 1 when we bet on them against Florida, this is a team that is no joke whatsoever. Toledo is one of the favorites in the MAC this year for a reason, and though it is going to be tough to match up with the physicality of some of the best teams from the SEC for any team out of the MAC, a finesse team like Missouri can definitely be had. The Tigers had better have their hard hats on in this one, because if they aren’t ready, they might ultimately get beaten by the Rockets.
Week 2 College Football Pick of the Week: Toledo Rockets +17.5
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.