Date/Time: October 5th, 12:00 PM ET
Spread: Florida State -15
Here at Bang the Book, we are always keeping our eyes open for the best games to bet on each and every week. Of all of the games on the Week 6 docket, the one we are zeroing in on is the game where the Florida State Seminoles host the Maryland Terrapins at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 5th.
We were unlucky not to get a cover last week with the Ohio State Buckeyes over the Wisconsin Badgers, as that game ended in a backdoor push. Had you shopped around at the end, you would have found plenty of 6.5s on the board, and that would have left us at 4-1 ATS thus far on the season in our best college football bets.
We’re moving over to the ACC and getting this one in early this week, as Florida State hosts Maryland in a game that really shouldn’t be all that close. The Terrapins are getting a lot of respect right now, and perhaps deservedly so. They are a 4-0 team both SU and ATS, and they have exceeded the oddsmakers’ expectations.
However, take a look at what this team has played against this year. The Old Dominion Monarchs are a transitioning FCS team into the top flight of college football, the Florida International Golden Panthers have just five returning starters from last year’s team, the Connecticut Huskies just got their doors blown off by the Buffalo Bulls, and the West Virginia Mountaineers mustered absolutely no offense at all on the season until they were able to beat up the Oklahoma State Cowboys last week in some parallel universe where things like that happen.
We know that these Terrapins are better this year than they were at the end of last season. They almost have to be. The team was using a backup linebacker as a quarterback last year against Florida State and running this weird offense that sort of looked like a bad version of the Wildcat that it called the Wild Crab. Whatever. We’ll throw last year’s game out, though it must be noted that Maryland did cover that game as 31.5-point underdogs.
QB CJ Brown’s season was cut short last year due to injury, but he is back and looks remarkable. He has thrown for 1,043 yards and seven scores and has rushed for 283 yards and six more TDs, but can he do it against Florida State? That’s really the whole question that we have for this Maryland team right now, knowing that it hasn’t faced anyone anywhere near the caliber of team that the Seminoles are, and this game is also on the road in front of almost 90,000 at Doak Campbell Stadium.
This one is just as much about Florida State, though. The team allowed 34 points last week to the Boston College Eagles, and that’s going to scare a lot of bettors. It should for sure, knowing that the team only allowed 26 points in total in its first three games of the season. However, Head Coach Jimbo Fisher isn’t going to tolerate that, and you can bet that all week long, he’s going to be on the case of his defense to play better football against another inferior foe.
What remains constant is the fact that QB Jameis Winston is still blowing people up. He’s still a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy at this point, and for good reason. He is spreading the ball all over the field, and he has accounted for 14 touchdowns already in just four games and is completing nearly three quarters of his passes.
The difference here is that we have seen Florida State play in games like this one. The Seminoles blew out the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 1, and the truth of the matter is that the team outscored Boston College 45-17 after falling behind 17-3 in the first half. As long as the Noles aren’t looking too far ahead on their schedule to that game against the Clemson Tigers in a few weeks, they should be just fine.
FSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall, and it is 5-1 ATS in its last six games played here at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium. Maryland has a decent history of playing against Florida State, but the spread in this game very well should be at least 20. Don’t let that Top 25 ranking for the Terrapins fool you. They’re completely fool’s gold to us until they can prove that they can play against anyone with any legitimate value in the ACC or anywhere else in the country for that matter. Look for the Seminoles to pull out another victory where they score in the 40s and keep their foe in the teens.
Week 6 College Football Pick of the Week: Florida State Seminoles -15
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.