Date/Time: October 12th, 12:00 PM ET
Television: FOX Sports 1
Spread: Texas Tech -15.5
Here at Bang the Book, we are always keeping our eyes open for the best games to bet on each and every week. Of all of the games on the Week 7 docket, the one we are zeroing in on is the game where the Texas Tech Red Raiders host the Iowa State Cyclones at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 12th.
Florida State was an easy winner last week for our NCAA football pick of the week, and we are now rolling along at 5-1 ATS for the season through six games. We’re going to be taking on a friendly looking matchup on paper this week, as Iowa State hits the road in Lubbock to take on the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech is finally starting to get noticed. Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury knows what he is doing, and the former quarterback of the Air Raid is really turning into the Chosen One for this program in a hurry. Thus far this year, the Red Raiders have had no problems whatsoever, as they have beaten each of their opponents by double digits, and they have done so with ease. Even their first conference game of the year, they were underdogs at home against the TCU Horned Frogs, who at the time were floating around the Top 25 in their own respect. The schedule hasn’t been tough, but as we have already documented, we have seen this team come to play regardless of who the foe is.
Iowa State and its 1-3 record definitely don’t constitute a huge challenge either, though we have a bit of a soft spot for the Cyclones thanks to their schedule. Yes, the loss to open up the season against Northern Iowa was completely inexcusable, and it very well could be the game that keeps this team out of a bowl game. However, taking on Iowa, Tulsa, and Texas has been no fun whatsoever, and this one won’t be any easier going on the road to the Lone Star State.
The offense is getting better and better for Iowa State with each passing week, and that’s exactly what we expect to happen with a young pivot like QB Sam Richardson. Richardson is one of the up and comers in the Big XII, and we very well could be talking about him as a Heisman Trophy candidate in a couple of years if the Cyclones continue moving in the right direction. The sophomore has thrown for 1,019 yards and nine TDs against four picks on the campaign, and he is proving that he has a running game with RB Aaron Wimberly as well. After two poor games to start the campaign, Wimberly has rolled off at least 100 yards in back to back games, and it shouldn’t be all that much of a surprise that those are the two games that the Cyclones have covered.
The reason that we really like ISU in this game though, is because of the quarterback situation at Texas Tech. This has been a bad spot for this team all year long, as QB Baker Mayfield had to take over as a walk-on freshman without a scholarship to lead the team. Mayfield has definitely earned his scholarship at this point, but he is out of the fold with a knee injury in all likelihood. Just a couple days ago, Mayfield was considered to be out for quite some time, perhaps the rest of the season with a knee injury, but he is at least walking around now and is being considered a possibility.
Kingsbury still hasn’t announced whether he is going to use Mayfield on Saturday, but we are seriously doubting it. The options left aren’t good. Another walk-on, QB Davis Webb could be the man that gets the call, and if he does, we absolutely love our chances. Webb is only just barely completing half of his passes this year with six TDs and four picks, and that’s a recipe for bad news when you’re talking about an offense that throws the ball at least 70% of the time, if not more. QB Michael Brewer, who was slated to be the quarterback at the start of the season, could get the nod, as could a longshot, QB Clayton Nicholas.
Regardless, we don’t like the options all that much. Texas Tech is a good team, but it is starting to really get overrated. This isn’t one of the best 25 teams in the nation as we see it. The Cyclones have a shot to get something rolling, and this is a game that really is winnable.
Iowa State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games in October, and it is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games. The Red Raiders are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in conference play, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven played here at Jones AT&T Stadium. Now add in there the fact that Texas Tech has been held to a total of 31 points in the last two seasons in this game, and the makings are definitely there for some problems. The Red Raiders are going to be pushed to the brink in this game, and we think that there is a great chance that the Cyclones are going to at least stick within two touchdowns.
Week 7 College Football Pick of the Week: Iowa State Cyclones +15.5
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.