October 10, 2012

Game 3: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks

MLB Picks

Preview


Baltimore Orioles
vs.
New York Yankees

Starting Pitchers: Gonzalez (Orioles) vs. Kuroda (Yankees)

Date/Time: October 10th, 7:07 P.M. EST

Television: TBS

MLB Odds from BetAnySports

Moneyline: Orioles +165 Yankees -172

Total: 8.5

 

MLB Betting Game Trends

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Game Overview

Game 3 of the ALDS takes place for MLB betting fans in the Bronx, as the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles both hope to push the other to the brink of elimination on Wednesday night.

Baltimore couldn’t be all that happy about just getting a split back at Camden Yards, but at least it has a chance to still win this series, knowing that it can win two out of three here at Yankee Stadium. Still, it is going to take a heck of a lot more offense in all likelihood, knowing that the team has just five runs to show for two games worth of work in this series. Miguel Gonzalez will be making his first ever playoff start on Wednesday in a huge spot. Gonzalez, like so many of the other young Orioles this year, came out of nowhere to be fantastic in big games. The rookie went 9-4 in 18 appearances (15 starts), and he posted a 3.25 ERA. The last four teams that he faced combined to score just six runs, and he didn’t allow more than two to any of those clubs. A K/BB ratio of 77/35 over 105.1 innings of work needs some improvement, but for a rookie who had never pitched in the big leagues at all before this year, we can’t be all that critical.

The Yankees know that this is a crucial game to win. They certainly don’t want to be facing two straight pressure packed games at home against a team that is as stingy as the Orioles are, and they know that the task isn’t easy. The good news though, is that they have a real gamer on the mound in Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda pitched the final day of the regular season to make sure that the Yanks survived as the AL East champs, and his reward is getting to pitch this game in Yankee Stadium instead of in Camden Yards or some other location. Kuroda was picked up this year to be the rock behind CC Sabathia, and he did just that, going 16-11 with a 3.32 ERA. Most importantly, Kuroda didn’t melt under the pressure that comes with playing in the Big Apple, and he threw a whopping 219.2 crucial innings. Kuroda has three playoff starts under his belt, accounting for two wins and one dreadful loss from his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Prediction

The bottom line here is that there is just too much respect given to the Yankees. Are the Bronx Bombers going to win this series? Probably. But are they going to ultimately have a 65-70% chance of winning each of these games? Heck no! That’s why we’re going to call for the upset on Wednesday night, knowing that we only have to be right 40% of the time or so to turn a huge profit. Baltimore 5 – New York 4

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Adam Markowitz

is a staff writer living in the Orlando area. He has covered NFL, MLB, college football, CFL, AFL, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, golf, tennis, and the NHL for a number of various outlets in his career, and he has been published by a number of different media outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.

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