NFL Football Betting Preview
Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
Monday October 5th, 8:30PM Eastern
Betus.com betting line – Vikings -4, 46 O/U
The Green Bay Packers will travel to the Metrodome to battle with the Minnesota Vikings in one of the most highly anticipated games of the season. Vikings QB Brett Farve will make his first start against the team he spent 16 years with behind center and emotions are sure to run high. Farve left Green Bay before the 2008 season after coming out of retirement and the Packers administration did not warmly accept him back. The legendary quarterback now gets his chance to beat the team he spent the majority of his career with and extend the Vikings unbeaten streak to 4-0. Farve is coming off one of the most electrifying performances of his career throwing a 32 yard bullet to find WR Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone with 2 seconds to go for a touchdown that stole a win from the San Francisco 49ers 27-24. Farve A.K.A “Magic Man” looks to provide some more excitement this Monday night on the big stage in a big NFC North division battle.
The Packers come rolling into Minneapolis off a 36-17 victory over St. Louis. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw for a season high 269 yards and two scores in the contest. Rodgers has thrown the ball fairly well even though he is only completing 57% of his passes. However, Rodgers has thrown 4 touchdowns without a single interception on the season. The Packers passing attack provides the biggest threat to defenses compared to their running game. The Packers offense has not provided the type of production they may have expected rounding out with just 313 yards of total offense per game in their first 3 contest. Running back Ryan Grant is coming off his best performance of the year with 99 yards last week against the Rams. Ryan has struggled averaging 3.8 yards per carry and now will take on a strong Vikings defensive front that should make things even tougher.
The Vikings defense ranks 4th overall after 3 games holding opponents to just 259 total yards per game. The Minnesota run defense ranked 1st for the 2008 season holding opponents to just 76 yards per game and are off to a good start in 2009 holding teams to just 92 yards of total rushing per game. The Vikings chances of shutting down the Packers inconsistent running game look good, but will the secondary stand strong as well?
On offense despite Farve’s popularity and storylines heading into Monday night’s battle, the Vikings remain a rushing team. Adrian Peterson is the best tailback in the NFL and leads the NFL with 357 yards through the first 3 weeks. Peterson has touched the ball 59 times with an impressive 6.1 yards per carry average. In the Vikings two meetings last year with Green Bay, Peterson racked up nearly 300 yards in those two performances and his success will again be a huge factor in the ball game.
Of course the story line heading into Monday night’s game will heavily favor Brett Farve and his quest to take down his former Packers. However, in reality Farve could be much smaller factor than perceived for Monday night. The Packers have been vulnerable in their run defense meaning the Vikings will likely keep things on the ground. The Vikings defense should keep the game from becoming a high score shootout. Unless it is a shootout, Farve may have limited passing opportunities expecting a low scoring game. Of course if things were to get close late in the game then “magic man” will definitely have every opportunity to win the game for the Vikings.
Betting Trends –
Green Bay is on an impressive road streak going 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games and the Packers offense has reached the over in 15 of the last 23 games. However, Green Bay is just 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games. The Vikings have not been extremely impressive going just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games while reaching the under in 4 of those 6 games. The Vikings are 8-2-1 SU in their last 11 games, but are just 1-5 SU against Green Bay in the last 6 meetings.
Pick – Offenses struggle and both quarterbacks are of little importance until late in the game. Take the under 46