April 30, 2013

Hot-Shooting Warriors Want to Close Things Out in Denver

Many people who have been engaging in NBA playoff betting at BetAnySports are surprised that the Golden State Warriors have gone out to a 3-1 lead over the Denver Nuggets in their Western Conference playoff series. And on Tuesday night the Warriors have the opportunity to close things out on Denver’s home floor, in a Game 5 showdown that is slated to tip off at 8:05 PM ET at the Pepsi Center in the Mile High City.

Here is a quick look at Tuesday’s matchup:

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Game 5 – West Playoffs (Warriors lead 3-1)
Tuesday, April 30 – 8:05 PM ET
Pepsi Center – Denver

Power forward David Lee remains out for the Warriors wit his hip injury, while Denver’s major offensive threat, Danilo Gallinari, is lost with a torn ACL.

In the NBA betting odds that have been posted at BetAnySports, the Nuggets are big favorites:


BetAnySports.com
Denver Nuggets -7.5
Golden State Warriors  +7.5

Over 212.5 Points  -110
Under 212.5 Points  -110

Nuggets win game  -370
Warriors win game +310

Stephen Curry is going to remain on Golden State’s injury list with an ankle injury, but that hardly means anything, since he simply goes out there every night and racks up the numbers. Curry, after a disappointing Game 1 effort where he made just seven out of 20 shots, has lit up the scoreboard in each of these last three games that the Warriors have won, with 30, 29 and 31 points. He is 47% from beyond the three-point arc, including 6-for-11 in Game 4, is perfect from the free throw line, and has, for these last three games, dished out 31 assists with just six turnovers.

Denver’s quandary isn’t just that they can’t stop him, but that even if they do slow him up, there are other people who can do some damage. One of those people is Jarrett Jack, who like Curry was ice cold in Game 1 (three of 12), but has come roaring back with sizzling shooting since, making 28 of 38 shots. In Golden State’s three-guard setup, the Nuggets have a rough time defending against the pick-and-roll; the Warriors (who are listed at +2700 to win the West in NBA playoff betting at BetAnySports) have shot 57.5% over the last three contests. Will it be that easy for Denver to make the necessary defensive adjustments? George Karl thought he came up with a good plan by going small and taking the poor pick-and-roll defenders largely out of the rotation, but that hasn’t really worked.

The one thing you can say about the Nuggets as they go into this do-or-die situation is that they can at least take some advantage of Curry’s ankle as it relates to defense. Ty Lawson has been very much alive in this series,  scoring 61 points over the last two games as he has taken control of this offense. We expect that he will continue to do that. And Andre Iguodala had 19 points in Game 4. But something else has to happen for the Nuggets on offense; perhaps the answer could come from Corey Brewer, who can make some threes and certainly is an asset on the defensive end.

Is Denver due? Well, the 28-15 ATS record at home, where they shot 48.6% on the season, has to count for something. And they have demonstrated that they can get to the free throw line (130 attempts in four games). If they can keep Golden State under relative control from the arc, and hit at least 75% of their foul shots, as they have in each of the last three, they can do it. In the $1 Million Charles Jay / BetAnySports Spring-Summer showdown (a simulation), we’ll lay the points with the Nuggets in a small play.

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Cole Ryan

Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.

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