September 25, 2010

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos: NFL Free Picks



Indianapolis Colts
(1-1, 1-1 ATS)

Denver Broncos
(1-1, 1-1 ATS)

A potential statement game could be on the books for both the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3 NFL betting action, as both are looking to get back above the .500 mark for the first time this year. The two will meet at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

QB Peyton Manning and his offense has proven quite a bit in two games this year. Offensive production certainly hasn’t been the problem. The team ranks first in the NFL in passing at 334.5 yards per game and proved last week that it is indeed capable of running the football. The combination of RB Joseph Addai and RB Donald Brown rumbled for 161 yards and a score, a marked improvement from the 44 yards Addai had against the Houston Texans in Week 1. Brown didn’t even touch the ball once. Only those Texans are averaging more points per game this year than the Colts are at 31.0 points per game. The key is going to be defense, as it always ultimately is for the Colts. Can Indy come up with just enough stops to get the offense some easy scores? DE Dwight Freeney already has three sacks this year, so he is doing his part. Once again, the Achilles heel for this team is the ground attack. The Colts are still licking their wounds from the 231 yards that RB Arian Foster dropped on them two weeks ago, and they still rank dead last in the league in rush defense at 188.5 yards per game.

Denver has one very strong result and one very questionable result so far this season. The Broncos know that they are going to have their work cut out for them defensively, but that they do have the horses to keep up with this passing attack. Unfortunately right now, the statistics aren’t showing that. The Broncos are allowing 319.0 yards per game and 19.0 points per game, both numbers of which are middle of the pack in the league. RB Knowshon Moreno is questionable with a hamstring injury, but he is going to want to do everything he can to get the upper hand for the Denver rushing game. Moreno leads the team with 111 yards rushing this year, but neither he nor RB Correll Buckhalter has really done a fantastic job on the ground. Moreno is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry, while Buckhalter is only averaging 2.0 yards per carry. QB Kyle Orton has looked good in spite of the fact that he really doesn’t have a tremendous receiver to throw to. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 602 yards and three scores against just one pick on the year.

Indy needs to really come out and make a major statement in this game on the road to try to take the AFC South back by storm. Denver is just 9-21-1 ATS in its L/31 home games, while Indy is 9-3-1 ATS in its L/13 on the road. It all just adds up properly. Games like this are why the Colts are seemingly always one of the best SU and ATS teams in the NFL.

Selection: Indianapolis Colts -5.5

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