October 7, 2013

Jets vs. Falcons Monday Night Football Prop Picks

Bet at 5dimesIt’s Monday night, and that means that there is just one more game with which to handicap on the NFL card. The Atlanta Falcons will play host to the New York Jets in this edition of Monday Night Football, and we have some great MNF props covered so you can find an alternative way to beat the NFL betting lines in this one.

Total Sacks Over 5 – With WR Roddy White still clearly limited and the Jets missing both WR Santonio Holmes and WR Stephen Hill (and possibly TE Kellen Winslow), these two passing games really could be limited in this one. You know that Head Coach Rex Ryan is going to be running his blitz packages all night long to get in the face of QB Matt Ryan, and though he isn’t pressured all that much generally speaking, we do think that he is going to end up getting sacked at least a couple of times. On the other side of the ball, we know that QB Geno Smith holds the ball far too long at times, and though the pressure isn’t necessarily there on a regular basis behind a better than average offensive line, the Falcons, when they blitz, should find success.

Geno Smith Under 1.5 TD Passes – We have to lay -165 to get this, but we know that Smith and the Jets aren’t going to be throwing all that many touchdowns in this one. In fact, Smith only has more than one TD pass once in his four games thus far, and we have to think that that is about the proportion that he is going to have at least for his rookie season. There’s a lot better chance that, without his top targets, he’s going to have just one touchdown pass than he will at having two or three, and that’s the way that we are going to go with this prop.

Matt Ryan Under 310.5 Passing Yards – The assumption is there that Matty Ice is going to have to throw the ball at least 40 times in this game, but we aren’t all that sure. With the long week, Head Coach Mike Smith has been insistent that his team runs the football more, even without RB Steven Jackson in the fold. It’s the only way to keep these blitzing Jets honest even in the slightest bit. The Jets have the seventh best pass defense in the league averaging 203.8 passing yards per game allowed, and that comes against a respectable set of offenses for sure. Remember that QB Tom Brady only threw for 185 yards and a TD against these Jets in Week 2. Ryan will do better than that in this one, but we’re not talking about numbers that are just ungodly by any stretch of the imagination. Until we really see White healthy and running routes like a champ again, we aren’t all that confident in what Ryan has the ability to do.

Julio Jones Over 99.5 Receiving Yards – Though we don’t like Ryan’s chances of getting beyond 300 yards, we certainly love the chances of Jones getting to 100. Over the course of the last four games, Jones has at least six catches and at least 76 yards. He has caught at least one pass for 49 yards in two of his four games, and he has reached triple digits in three games in a row. Even if TE Tony Gonzalez does go off for a big game, Jones always seems to get his, and there is clearly a better rapport here between Ryan and Jones right now than there are between any two other receivers that the Falcons are bringing to the table on the outside. The former member of the Alabama Crimson Tide should shine on Monday Night Football for at least 120 yards and a TD as we see it.

Matt Ryan To Throw an INT Before Geno Smith – At +180, we’ve got a decent price here as we see it. Ryan has been picked off once in three of his four games this year, and we have to think that a ball hawking secondary is going to be out there to make some turnovers happen in this one as well. Smith is likely to get picked off as well at some point, but we’re talking about the man that is going to do it first. It’s not a 50/50 proposition by any means, but it is definitely one that shouldn’t be +180 for Ryan. Don’t be shocked if the boo birds are out early with this Atlanta offense, though.

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Adam Markowitz

is a staff writer living in the Orlando area. He has covered NFL, MLB, college football, CFL, AFL, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, golf, tennis, and the NHL for a number of various outlets in his career, and he has been published by a number of different media outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.

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