(5-0, 2-3 ATS)
(4-1, 3-2 ATS)
Arch rivals from the SEC collide at the Swamp in a crucial NCAA football betting affair, as the Florida Gators play host to the LSU Tigers.
The Tigers have had a terrible time trying to move the football this year. No matter who it is calling the shots under center, it doesn’t seem to matter. LSU is just getting no production from its quarterback and hasn’t really gotten any since QB JaMarcus Russell left town. RB Steven Ridley remains as the only bright spot on a club that badly could use to get something good going. He is averaging well over 100 rushing yards per game this year and has found the end zone a team high four times. The key for LSU is going to be its defense. This unit has only allowed a grand total of 12.4 points per game this year, a number which we continue to preach would be even better if not for the fact that the North Carolina Tar Heels dropped 21 in a quarter against it. The Bayou Bengals rank No. 6 in the country in both total defense (246.6 yards per game) and rushing defense (79.0 yards per game), which is very bad news for a team that thinks that it is going to build a passing attack by establishing the run first.
Did the Gators really show their true colors last weekend in a 31-6 crippling loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide? This offense might just not be that good. We know one thing, and that’s that QB John Brantley cannot play this poorly if the Gators think they are beating the Bayou Bengals. He is completing just over 60 percent of his passes this year for 902 yards and has a 6/3 TD/INT ratio, but he looked very shaken at times against the Tide, especially when the pressure got into his face. Florida’s defense isn’t as bad as it looked last week, though if you take a statistical snapshot of the game, things weren’t all that bad. Arguably the most dangerous rushing attack in the nation was relatively stymied, and after a few bad drives in the first half, the defense really kicked into gear. This is a fantastic unit that HC Urban Meyer has, but it might not be enough to carry his dreadful offense.
We think that HC Les Miles is awfully tired of hearing about all of the things that his team can’t do. Instead, why not talk about some of the things that the Bayou Bengals can do? LSU has been lucky to date, we admit, but we know that this team is still very, very talented. Don’t be shocked to see some revenge come out from last year’s big time loss in the Bayou. The Gators will have a very hard time scoring in this game, and we think that the men in purple and gold will capitalize for at least a cover, if not an outright victory.
NCAA Football Free Pick: LSU Tigers +6.5