March 4, 2013

Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Free NBA Pick

NBA Pick

Preview


Miami Heat
vs.
Minnesota Timberwolves

Date/Time: Monday, March 4, 8 p.m. (ET)

Television: NBA TV

Basketball Odds from VietBet

Point Spread: Miami -5

Total: OFF

 

NBA Betting Trends

Miami Heat

  • Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
  • Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Minnesota
  • Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
  • Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
  • Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
  • Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
  • Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

 

Miami’s current winning streak survived a close-call at Madison Square Garden on Sunday in a thrilling 99-93 victory against New York as a 4.5-point road favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 196.5-point line after going OVER in its previous four games. The victory also tied a franchise record for consecutive wins at 14. The Heat are now 43-14 straight-up and 30-27 against the spread. They will stay on the road where they have gone 17-11 SU and 15-13 ATS this season.

Much has been made of both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade’s elevated performance during this amazing run, but the team has a whole, has been playing at a very high level. Miami is ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring with 103.7 points a game and Sunday was just the third time in the 14-game streak that it scored fewer than 100 points. The Heat as a team are shooting a light’s-out 49.6 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from three-point range.

The Timberwolves have just two SU victories in their last 12 games, but their whole season was already in the tank after losing their leading scorer and rebounder, Kevin Love with a broken hand in early January. Minnesota is now 20-36 SU on the year but slightly better ATS at 24-30-2. It is 13-14 SU (12-14-1 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed UNDER in five of its last eight games.

Making matters even worse heading into this matchup is the playing status of their next two best scorers and rebounders. Forward Andrei Kirilenko remains questionable for this game with a strained calf and center Nikola Pekovic has been listed as doubtful with an abdominal strain. This will only further tax a team that is ranked 19th in the NBA in scoring with an average of 95.2 points a game.

Prediction

The final spread will not be set until Kirilenko and Pekovic’s playing status has been confirmed, but expect it to climb after originally opening at five points. As long as it does not go too far over 10 points, the pick in this contest remains on Miami. It will be playing its third game in four nights, but it will be extremely tough for the Timberwolves to put up much resistance given their current situation.

Miami 101 Minnesota 89

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Dave Schwab

DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.

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