Miami Hurricanes vs Florida State Pick
The Florida State Seminoles (13-10, 5-5 ACC) host the third-ranked Miami Hurricanes (19-3, 10-0 ACC) Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 in ACC action. Oddsmakers have listed Miami as a 6.5 favorite.
Why Miami Covers
It is hard to believe Miami lost 63-51 to Florida Gulf Coast early this season. That’s because it has been on an absolute tear. The Hurricanes are off to a 10-0 start in ACC play and have won these games by an average of 12.9 points. They defeated Florida State 71-47 Jan. 27.
Florida State won its first two conference games on the road at Clemson and Maryland but is just 3-5 since. It is also a poor 6-6 at home this season. Miami, on the other hand, has won eight in a row on the road by an average of 10.4 points.
Florida State is typically outstanding on defense, but it has struggled at times this season. In fact, it currently ranks 200th in the country in scoring defense with 67.2 points allowed per game and 181st in field goal percentage defense, allowing its opponents to shoot 42.5 percent per game.
While the Seminoles have been inconsistent on the defensive end, the Hurricanes have been lights out on defense most of the season. They currently rank 14th in the nation in field goal percentage defense, giving up just 37.8 percent shooting per game. They are 27th in scoring defense, holding the opposition to only 59.0 points per contest.
Miami is an impressive 19-6-1 against the spread in its last 26 games. It is 15-5-1 against the number in its last 21 against conference opponents.
Why Florida State Covers
Miami hasn’t been as dominant on the road where it has a loss at Florida Gulf Coast. Each of its last four road wins have come by single digits, and two of its last three have come by a single point. One of the one-point road wins came against Boston College, which is currently tied for last in the ACC with a 2-8 record. If Boston College can give Miami a game so can Florida State.
Outside of a bad loss to Duke, the Seminoles have been competitive at home in ACC play. They are 2-1 in their other three conference home games with wins over Clemson and Maryland and a five-point loss to North Carolina.
Florida State will be lacking no motivation here after getting clocked 71-46 at Wake Forest last time out. Plus, last month’s ugly loss at Miami can’t be sitting well either. The Seminoles have had the upper hand in the series. They have won 11 of the last 14 meetings, including six straight at home. The home team is 3-1-1 against the number in the last five meetings.
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