MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNEY NOTES
By Tony George – Mo Valley / Big 12 Specialist – Expert BTB Capper
Another solid year in the Mo Valley right at 60% ATS with my plays, and along with the Big 12, one of my specialty conferences I love to handicap. Last year I tore through the tourney with a 4-0 ATS record. Low Volume yes, but the lines in this tourney were very sharp or way chalky last year, which is the case many times with Mid Major Conferences. I pick and choose my spots, but this tourney year and year out is always a profit maker.
2 Teams enter the Mo Valley Tourney Ranked. Wichita State is the belle of the ball this year and followed by Creighton with the Mo Valley’s best player in Doug McDermott, the coaches son. Creighton has fallen from grace during the last month and many question marks surround them as a #2 seed coming in here. No questions surround Wichita State, and a vastly experienced team with plenty of moxie and the the Shockers are the returning NIT post season champions from 2011. This team had a chip on their shoulder after getting overlooked for the Big Dance last year, and is my odds on favortite to take this tourney and make some noise in the field of 64 this year.
Northern Iowa has been a powerhouse team the past couple of years but are down this year and really struggled ont he road this season, at 4-9 SU. The same goes for the Salukis of Southern Illinois, so do not be betting on name recognition, both struggled all season long and cannot be trusted laying big numbers or even more than 4 or 5 points against weak sisters. There is a TON of parity in this conference and it is extremely top heavy with Creighton and Wichita State. You had 5 teams in the Mo Valley at 9-9 in confernce action and 1 team at 8-10, as you can see below. Lay big points in this tourney, and you will lose money.
The Stats – Conference records only – In order of ranking
Wichita St 16-2
Norhtern Iowa 9-9
Illinois St 9-9
Missouri State 9-9
Indiana St 8-10
So. Illinois 5-13
Bradley won 1 conference game all year. Evansville leads the conference in ATS covers at 16-9-1 and they also lead the conference in Overs at 17-9-1. Wichita State as 1 regular season road loss, and 2 losses on nuetral courts. They also are 17-10 ATS on Overs.
Teams that can win on the road are always a threat in a nuetral courts and Creighton is 10-3 on the road and 1-0 on neutral courts this year.
Sleepers in this tourney. Indiana State and Evansville. Illinois State sits at 18-12 overall and also might make some noise as well as Mizzou State who has a 806 road record and lost a ton of close this game this year. Drake sits tied for 5th place and have a winning record but they struggled at 3-8 on the road this year and connot betrusted outside of Des Moines.
This Tourney Starts this Thursday Night in St. Louis and you can expect some plays from me as usual in this tourney- Get Ready, the Mo Valley will be sending at least 2 teams to the dance and if someone goes nuts in the tourney, possibly 3.