Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the best teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Pittsburgh Pirates (26-14, +$1,088) – The Pirates have been an awesome SU team over the course of the last month of the season, but they have been underappreciated as a run-line team as well. The team has won eight out of nine games on the run-line dating back to May 7th, and a lot of those wins were of the big time variety. For example, the 3-1 win at home against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night was well timed, knowing that the run-line win paid a healthy +185 price tag. There really should be more success on the horizon as well at home, knowing that some of the worst teams in baseball are coming to town. The penalties for losing won’t be that great, but the rewards for winning should be healthy.
St. Louis Cardinals (23-16, +$864) – Five of the last six games that the Cardinals have played have been wins, and all of those wins have come by at least two runs. That’s why all of a sudden, the team is on top of the MLB betting world as the best SU money team in the league and the second best run-line team in the game as well. What’s helping out the Cards so much is the fact that they are starting to hit the ball a heck of a lot better, and their starting pitching has been tremendous. This team has the best ERA in baseball at 3.06, and that’s in spite of the fact that the bullpen has been blowing games left and right after superb outings by the starters.
Baltimore Orioles (23-17, +$629) – The Orioles have lost four of their last six games, but the penalties haven’t been harsh in those losses from a run-line perspective. In fact, the O’s almost made up all of the losses in those four games from the two wins against the Minnesota Twins that came by six and three runs respectively. Baltimore is going to continue to be a good run-line team because of its bats, which are averaging 4.90 runs per game, the second best mark in the league. Teams that win on the run-line that are constantly favorites know that they need to average well over four runs per game to make it work, and at this point, Baltimore is fitting the bill.
Tampa Bay Rays (21-18, +$569) – The Rays are still trying to work out of their SU money pit that they have built for their bettors, and they are still $304 in the hole as far as that is concerned. However Manager Joe Maddon and the gang have been winning games by multiple runs left and right, and in the games that they are winning by just one win or losing by just one run, it feels like they are underdogs, thus getting victories from the run-line perspective that way as well. If we could just get LHP David Price out of this equation, the Rays would be one of the most money teams in the game, and they would certainly be one of the best run-line teams as well. Tampa Bay is just 2-7 in its nine games with Price on the mound against the run-line, and just one of those wins came as a favorite.
New York Yankees (22-18, +$567) – We all continue to owe the Yankees an apology. They really did turn out to be a decent team this year in spite of the fact that over a hundred million bucks started off the year on the disabled list. Manager Joe Girardi, in our eyes, should be the Manager of the Year for taking his ragtag group of players and making them winners, but heck, the last time he did that was with the Florida Marlins, and he was fired that year as a result. New York won’t fire Girardi under any circumstance this year unless the bottom just totally falls out, especially knowing how well these first 40 games have gone for the men in pinstripes.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.