Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the best teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Pittsburgh Pirates (34-19, +$1,491) – The Pirates are never out of games because of their bullpen, and the oddsmakers are really starting to take notice of it all. Pittsburgh is quietly one of the best teams in the game right now, and it shouldn’t be considered all that surprising that it has such a great record on the run-line as well. The Bucs have rolled off seven consecutive wins on the run-line over the course of the last week, and though a lot of those games only provided the win at minus odds, some of them were very impressive triumphs. The 4-2 win over the Cubbies at home on May 23rd was the crowning moment of the bunch at a +165 price at -1.5. The Pirates still need some more offense if they are going to keep this up, especially once they get back from going to Atlanta next week.
St. Louis Cardinals (31-21, +$1,262) – The Cardinals are using a totally different formula from what Pittsburgh is using to win games on the run line, but both of these clubs have been wildly successful regardless. Manager Mike Matheny has a team on his side that is one of the most dynamic in the bigs, with a great pitching staff and an equally great starting lineup. The back end of the bullpen still scares us just a bit, but now that that is shored up, there is nothing stopping this club from succeeding. The statistical anomaly though, is that St. Louis has had 11 straight of its games decided by more than a run. For a team that is favored significantly more often than not, that means a great profit on the MLB betting lines. The Cards have won eight of those 11 games, including four in a row, several of which have been with big prices attached to them.
New York Yankees (29-23, +$831) – For each of the last four seasons, the Yankees have been a better team on the run lines than they have on the moneylines. This year isn’t an exception thus far, though matters might be getting even better for the team soon. As 1B Mark Teixeira pointed out in a recent interview, the Yankees are routinely one of the best offenses in the American League, and in some cases in all of baseball. This year, they only rank 16th in run production and 17th in team batting average. Now, both Tex and 3B Kevin Youkilis are about set to get back in the fold, and it seems like only a matter of time until the boys in pinstripes start to look a heck of a lot more like the Bronx Bombers that we are accustomed to seeing out there. This team could be scary on the run line going forward from here, and a profit of $2,000 this season isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Tampa Bay Rays (28-24, +$815) – The Rays have had the best offense in baseball over the course of the last week and a half. In their last 12 games, they are averaging right at 6.0 runs per game, and they are on their way to being competitive once again in the AL East. Not surprisingly, they have won eight of those 12 games, and they have covered the run line in seven of the 12, many of which have come at big plus prices. This is still a frightening team when you think about it. If Kelly Johnson is hitting home runs like he has been and James Loney is getting on base at the clip that he is batting, it’s only a matter of time until some of the big boys start blasting the ball out of the park. LHP Matt Moore has been the stud of all studs for the Rays this year at 8-0 with a 2.21 ERA.
Oakland Athletics (31-23, +$572) – There’s a big drop off here from Tampa Bay to Oakland, but the A’s are the better of these two teams at the moment. The A’s have the exact same record from an SU and a run line perspective. The team has been on absolute fire, winning six straight games and covering five of the six on the run line as well. The A’s are taking their best run at the Texas Rangers, something that is going to be difficult to pull off as the year goes by, but this team has been as clutch as could be. Oakland is batting just .246as a team, ranking 22nd in baseball, but it is still averaging 4.81 runs per game, sixth in the league.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.