Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the best teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Pittsburgh Pirates (51-27, +$2,275) – Send up the Jolly Roger! The Pirates have the best record in baseball, and by just about every betting measure you can come up with, they’re the best the bigs. They have $2,430 of profits from an SU standpoint, and they are the only team to have more than $1,000 in profits on the road AND at home. Not surprisingly, they’re the best run-line team by a country mile as well. The Bucs have rolled off six straight SU wins, and they have covered eight straight on the run-line. Of course, most of those games have come at +1.5 and minus odds, which isn’t contributing a ton to the efforts, but they are avoiding bad run-line losses and doing the job when they are -1.5 at plus odds as well. Can anything stop this team? We’ll see coming up at home against the Brewers and Phillies, games in which they are going to be huge favorites.
St. Louis Cardinals (43-35, +$1,351) – The Cards have slipped just a bit in the last two weeks on the run-line, costing bettors right around $300 who have consistently backed them on the run-line. That said, they really have been fortunate to be -1.5 in each of their last 16 games. Save for a couple games against the Chicago Cubs when they were beyond -200 favorites, the Cardinals were plus odds at -1.5 in each of those efforts, and only one win that it claimed was by a single run. A 5-11 record on the run-line in those games isn’t good, but it isn’t as disastrous as it would have been had the team been short underdogs in even some of those efforts.
Oakland Athletics (45-35, +$1,255) – The A’s are going to have an interesting weekend ahead of them, as they are going to be taking on the Cardinals, the second best run-line team in the game. Something is definitively going to have to give on one side or the other. Keep a particularly close eye on the starts that RHP Bartolo Colon is making. He has won seven straight starts, and in all seven of those outings, Oakland has covered the run line as well. In fact, the A’s have eight straight wins on the run-line in games in which Colon has started, and he has netted well over $1,000 of profits in those games. Take out that stretch though, and the Athletics are a very average team when push comes to shove.
Baltimore Orioles (44-35, +$906) – The Orioles were amongst the +$1,000 winners this year on the run-line before recent times. They were beaten in two out of three on the run-line by both the Blue Jays and the Indians, and they are going to be in a spot where it is tough to beat the soon-to-be-mentioned Yankees at home over the weekend to end the month of June. We can only imagine how good Baltimore would be on the run-line if not for the failures of its pitching staff. The team ranks 29th of the 30 teams in the league with a 4.53 team ERA, and all of the pitching stats have been horrid. However, what makes up for it are the 28 home runs for 1B Chris Davis and the 108 bombs that the team has as a hole. That’s why when the Orioles win, they usually win big.
New York Yankees (40-37, +$628) – The Yankees are back in control on the run-line, but we wonder how much longer it is going to last for. The success that the club has had in recent games have come when playing at least six runs. In that situation since June 16th, New York is 4-0 SU and 4-0 against the run-line, netting over $600 in profits along the way. However, in the rest of the games since that point, the Yankees are 0-5, and they have lost over $600 as well. With 1B Mark Teixeira out for the rest of the season with a wrist injury, it’s a wonder how the Bronx Bombers are going to be able to muster up the offense to compete on the run-line, especially when they are short favorites and need to win by more than one run to cover.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.