Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the best teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Pittsburgh Pirates (56-34, +$2,168) – The Pirates went on a four-game losing streak this week, but it really hasn’t hurt them any. They covered the run-line in two of those losses, and they fired back on Wednesday with a win over the A’s at -140 on the moneyline and +160 on the run-line. The opportunity is still there for this run-line streak to only get better and better as the rest of this season goes by, especially if the bullpen continues to be as good for Pittsburgh as it has been for most of this season. We would really be surprised in the end if the Pirates never relinquished this hold on the top spot for the rest of the season when it comes to run-lines.
Baltimore Orioles (51-41, +$1,235) – Imagine how good of a team the Orioles would have been had they not had that awful stretch of bullpen pitching in the middle and the end of May! They have been absolute money for the most part of late on run-lines, including stealing a pair of wins at +1.5 in one-run losses against the Yankees just after the Fourth of July. Go back a bit more, and Baltimore was winning games left and right by multiple runs, and once again, we’re looking at the Yankees as the team that was the butt of the joke. The bottom line with the O’s is for as long as they are mashing the baseball to the tune of nearly a home run and a half per game, they are going to be a great run-line play. Keep an eye on this team in the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay Rays (50-42, +$1,215) – Tampa Bay has been flat out balling over the course of these last few weeks. The team has won seven games in a row SU and 11 out of 12, and save for a 4-3 win over Minnesota on Wednesday in extra innings, it had covered all of those games on the run-line as well. That’s how you make a statement in a hurry and boost a bunch of bankrolls in the process. We warned a few weeks ago that the Rays were going to be set to go on a run, and they have done just that, taking advantage of all of the lousy teams on their schedule. After taking three out of four against Houston, three straight against the White Sox, and four straight against the Twins, you can bet that this is one team that doesn’t want to see the All-Star Break come.
Chicago Cubs (54-35, +$1,153) – The Cubbies have the second most covers in baseball at 54 on the run-line this year, and that’s really amazing to think about considering the fact that they only have 40 SU victories. Chicago has covered 12 out of 14 in spite of the fact that it is only 9-5 in those games. Granted, there’s nothing that the Cubs have done wrong over the course of these last few weeks relatively speaking. They aren’t really good enough to keep winning games at this pace, especially after they ultimately continue trading off the only assets that they have on the team as July 31st approaches. Still, those +1.5 run-lines are going to be tantalizing if the Cubs continue to at least stay competitive, and the prices on those run-lines are going to get better and better as the year goes on.
St. Louis Cardinals (47-42, +$947) – The Cards are back in control of the NL Central, and in all likelihood, they are going to ultimately stay right there for the rest of the year. The team is averaging 5.00 runs per game this season, and it is batting .275 for the campaign. St. Louis has won five straight games, but three of those have been by just one run. Now, the team has to go on the road to Wrigley Field for the last four games before the All-Star break. The problem? On the road, the Cards have dropped three of their last four from a run-line standpoint. There could be problems down the road, and we have seen St. Louis drop several units of late on the run-line.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.