Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the best teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Baltimore Orioles (75-57, +$2,419) – Perhaps we shouldn’t be all that shocked that the Orioles are up here as one of the top money teams in the game when it comes to run-line production. 1B Chris Davis, who is affectionately referred to as “Crush” has 47 dingers, and he is playing on an offense which has produced 4.76 runs per game and 177 bombs. The pitching staff is suspect, and that’s what’s going to get the O’s in some trouble at times, but for the most part, their games are decided by more than one run. This isn’t like last season’s team which got by with the skin of its teeth to spare in a lot of these games. This Baltimore club can mash the ball, and games are never over. Is it going to be enough to get into the playoffs? We tend to doubt it, but we know that this is one of the best run-line teams in the game as well, and we are going to ride it until Game 162 accordingly.
Los Angeles Dodgers (74-59, +$2,390) – Not surprisingly, when the Dodgers went on their massive tear of games over the course of July and August, they were winning games on the run-line left and right as well. Whether it be SS Hanley Ramirez, OF Yasiel Puig, or any of the other bats coming up with the big time hit, or whether it be RHP Zack Greinke, LHP Clayton Kershaw, or any of the others hurling, this team continues to win games and win games by large margins. The real winner on the run-lines for the Dodgers? LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu. Sure, Ryu has been beaten in back to back starts, but prior to that, he had not only led LA to wins in eight straight starts, but the team covered all eight of those games as well, including putting up some massive +180 or greater run-line victories.
Pittsburgh Pirates (78-55, +$2,370) – The Bucs have actually taken a few steps backwards over the course of the last few weeks from a monetary standpoint, as they are getting beaten and beaten badly by teams at times. That being said, this is still one of the best money teams in the league for bettors thanks to a pitching staff which has posted a team ERA of 3.21 on the season. The Pirates have infused a bit of life into their lineup by taking on OF Marlon Byrd and C John Buck, and in the end, these might be the men that help them start to score some more run-line victories when push comes to shove. Remember that this team has already covered 78 run lines this year with an offense that is only averaging 3.90 runs per game on the campaign.
Atlanta Braves (70-63, +$1,479) – There is a huge drop off here from the Pirates down to the Braves, and for good reason. Atlanta is just too big of a favorite on a daily basis to be picking up those big time rewards at -1.5. That said, this very well could be the best team in baseball. The Braves were the first to get to 80 wins this year, and barring collapse, they are going to be the first to clinch a playoff spot as well. There really aren’t any tremendous superstars on this team, and that might cause for its demise later on in the postseason, but there are just nine guys out there who are all doing their job on a night in, night out basis. The problem will come when the Braves have to win some road games, though. They’re 47-18 at Turner Field and just 34-34 away from it.
Oakland Athletics (69-64, +$753) – The Athletics aren’t normally looked upon as a great run-line team, and there is still a halfway decent chance that they could end up falling off of the face of the earth at the end of the season if they slump down the stretch. But for the time being, the remedy in Oakland has been simple. The team is playing respectable ball on the road, and a ton of those 39 wins that have come at the O.co Coliseum have been by multiple runs. Remember that Oakland has a pitcher’s park, and quite often, the run-line numbers are huge on the hosts because of it. Even at -150, the team is likely going to be a +150 underdog at -1.5 because of the lack of run production that the park generally yields for. That said, with an overachieving offense, the A’s are making it work, and for now, that’s why they’re on this list of the hottest run-line teams in the game.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.