Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Milwaukee Brewers (3-10, -$843) – The Brewers have won three games in a row, but that came on the heels of losing three straight by multiple runs. Needless to say, that isn’t a great recipe for winning on the run line either, especially knowing that Wednesday’s win over the Giants came by a single run as a -1.5 favorite. Part of the problem that this team has had is that its bullpen has been atrocious. The team has a 4.96 team ERA this season, and it feels like every time that the offense does something to get the team ahead, the pitching staff does something to give it right back up.
Cleveland Indians (4-9, -$771) – The Indians have been a respectable team this year, but they are clearly a statistical anomaly at this point when it comes to one-run games. They have had just one game all season long decided by a single run, and that unfortunate came in a game in which they were favored. That leaves a lot of situations, just like on this list home stand, when the team was +1.5 and -180 types of prices, and a lot of those games ended in defeats. In fact, it happened three times just in the last nine days that Cleveland was a +1.5 team that got slaughtered at between -170 and -200 prices, and that’s why the team is absolutely the worst on the run line in the American League on the season.
Philadelphia Phillies (5-10, -$643) – You have to see this coming with the Phillies virtually every season at this point. They were a terrible run line team for the most part last year because their offense wasn’t all that special, and guys like LHP Cliff Lee would just routinely pitch phenomenally. The end result was that games were close. Most of the time, they were being lost, but even when they were won, a number of those games came by a single run. The Phils have now gone just 2-3 in their last five games from a run-line standpoint, and they have gotten crippled as +1.5 -160ish favorites in their last two games on the road against the Cincinnati Reds.
Houston Astros (6-9, -$499) – The Astros are going to have problems all season long on the run-line as well this season because their pitching staff is just full of stiffs. This is one of the two teams in the league that has an ERA of at least five on the season, and there is no doubt that this is problematic. It’s really tough to cover +1.5 numbers when you’re always allowing five and six runs per night. The Astros only just played in their first two one run games of the season this week. However, they still haven’t had a game this year in which they have been favored. Parlay those two things together, and you’ve got an awfully bad run-line team to work with.
Miami Marlins (6-9, -$474) – Yuck. Are we just going to be talking about the Marlins all season long as one of baseball’s most disappointing team? It’s tough to suggest otherwise when you look at what has gone on over the course of the first 15 games of the season. Fortunately, relatively good pitching has kept Miami in games this season, which is why the team has even six wins on the campaign. However, these bats have just been an atrocity. How in the world can you have double the number of games getting shut out as you do having scored more than three runs? Right now, Miami is pulling it off, as it has been blanked four times and has scored more than three runs just twice this year.
is a staff writer living in the Orlando area. He has covered NFL, MLB, college football, CFL, AFL, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, golf, tennis, and the NHL for a number of various outlets in his career, and he has been published by a number of different media outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.