Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
New York Mets (16-28, -$1,798) – Talk about a hole that you’ll never work out of… The Mets are the most embarrassing run-line team in baseball this year, and it has really come out of nowhere over the course of the last few weeks. The team was just beaten in back to back games as huge favorites on the run-line on Tuesday and Wednesday by the Cincinnati Reds. Most importantly though, is the fact that New York just can’t seem to cover a game at plus odds at -1.5. You have to go all the way back to April 24th to find the last case of the team winning a game by more than a run as a favorite. Since then, the team is 0-11 in that situation. Even worse is what happens when RHP Matt Harvey isn’t on the mound. Eliminate Harvey’s starts from the equation, and New York has three covers as a favorite this year, and all three of those came with LHP Jon Niese hurling. Things are getting worse before they get better in the Big Apple.
Milwaukee Brewers (18-27, -$1,318) – As odd as it is, the Brewers have the exact same record both SU and from a run-line standpoint, and that is one of the weird quirks that you never see in baseball. Milwaukee is another one of these teams just like New York that can’t figure out how to win a game as a favorite on the run-line this year. The Brew Crew have lost seven straight games both SU and against the run-line as favorites, and that’s a horrid stat to have, especially with a number of home games coming in which the team is going to be getting the nod from the oddsmakers. As bad as 18-27 is, there is a good possibility that this record is going to get worse for the Brewers in the next week or so as well.
Washington Nationals (20-27, -$1,042) – You would think that a team with this many stars on it would be able to plate some more runs with regularity. Alas, OF Bryce Harper, 2B Ian Desmond, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, and all of the other hitters on this team are only yielding 3.38 runs per game, a .225 batting average, and a team OPS of .653. Twelve of the 42 home runs that the club has hit have come off of the bat of Harper, and none of that is going to cut it. Washington is still keeping its head just above .500 thanks to its solid pitching staff, but you don’t cover games when you’re favored more often than you’re not favored and you can’t score runs. The Nationals just finished up this 10-game West Coast swing by scoring two runs or fewer in six of the 10 outings.
Seattle Mariners (21-26, -$900) – Every week, we talk about the Mariners and say that they are just generally a bad run-line team to play, and we are sticking by that again this week as well. Of course, any bet that you make on Seattle right now is a bad one, knowing that the team dropped the final six games that it played on the road on this nine-game stretch. Only one of those losses came by one run, and many of those games, notably the last two against the Cleveland Indians last weekend, came as -102 and -103 underdogs on the MLB betting lines, meaning these were losses that essentially counted for double on the run-line, as the prices were all in the -200 range.
Los Angeles Dodgers (18-27, -$871) – It really seems like it’s only a matter of time until Manager Don Mattingly is shown the door, and when that happens, it will be merciful for him. The team just isn’t playing all that well at the moment, and without a change happening soon, the season will officially be a lost one. The team still doesn’t even have 20 SU wins on the season, and all of the problems that we have been seeing from an SU perspective, we are seeing from a run-line perspective as well. Save for LHP Clayton Kershaw, the pitching just hasn’t been good enough, the back end has gotten beaten up far too often, and the batting order has been banged up and isn’t producing. It’s all a disaster in Tinseltown right now, and we wouldn’t want to be betting on this team regardless of what the situation happens to be.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.