MLB Betting – Worst MLB Run-Line Teams (5/9/13)
Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Toronto Blue Jays (14-21, -$1,002) – And to think, this is up to losing just 10+ units on the season… The Blue Jays have at least turned the corner just a bit, as they ultimately beat the run-line in three of their last four games coming into Thursday’s series finale with the Rays at Tropicana Field. Still, at home, this team has been a horrifying disaster this year for run-line bettors. As favorites this year, Toronto is just 7-12 this season, and a lot of the damage has come from these games, especially the ones that were lost outright as -170 or greater favorites. It’s going to take a lot of work to get the Blue Jays out of this type of a hole.
Los Angeles Dodgers (12-21, -$908) – It’s not all that surprising that the Dodgers are one of the worst run-line teams in baseball, as they play in a cavernous park that promotes low scoring games, and winning by more than one run is usually a very difficult task. What’s even worse for LA though, is that it is having the same problem that Toronto is having on the season. The team was just flat out overrated at the start of the year. The Dodgers are only 13-20 SU, and they have dropped seven games in a row. In that stretch, there are only two wins at +1.5 to show for their work, and there are a heck of a lot of losses as favorites.
Seattle Mariners (15-20, -$879) – The problem that the Mariners are having this year is that they just haven’t played in all that many one-run games. In fact, they haven’t lost a game by exactly one run since losing on April 23rd to the Houston Astros, and they haven’t been beaten by a single run in a game in which they were +1.5 since April 17th. They also only have two wins at +1.5 this year in games in which they were beaten SU. This is a big issue for teams like the Mariners, who are constantly +1.5 and -150 when you look at the MLB odds. However, we know that these one-run games are going to regulate themselves at some point, and when they do, the Mariners are going to probably flip this and become one of the better run-line teams in the game.
San Francisco Giants (12-22, -$841) – Here’s the perfect case of a team that is winning games and is a great SU money team that just isn’t panning out the same way on the run-line. We do admit that it is rare to see, but the Giants have this history of playing in as many one-run games as any team in baseball. The G-Men are a rock solid 4-2 in their last six games, but they are 0-6 on the run-line in those games because each of the wins have come by exactly one run. Give San Fran credit for finding ways to win the close games, but those close wins are the real killers when it comes to run-line bettors. One of the best bets for the rest of the season might be fading the Giants on the run-line each and every night, as you know that there are a huge percentage of games that are going to be one-run wins for the defending World Series champions.
Cleveland Indians (13-18, -$728) – And here with Cleveland, we have one that makes even less sense than what we just saw with the Giants. The Indians don’t have problems generating runs, and they rank eighth in baseball in terms of an SU money record at +$479. The issue is the quantity of times that this team has lost this year as a short underdog, meaning a huge favorite on the run-line. Seven times this season in fact, Cleveland has been an underdog of +130 or less and has lost on the run-line, and those are the losses that you just never make up. The -180 to -200 defeats take a long, long time to work out of, and that’s the hole that the Tribe find themselves in for their bettors.
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