Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Milwaukee Brewers (20-38, -$2,294) – Just when you thought that it couldn’t get any worse for the Brewers… Milwaukee is going to inevitably lose OF Ryan Braun for at least 50, if not 100 games at some point during this season, so the possibility is there that this offense is going to get even worse. The reason that the Brewers are struggling so badly on the run-line though, is because their starting pitchers flat out stink. There isn’t a starter on the staff that has better than a 4-4 record, and just the fact that at this point, there isn’t a healthy starter in the rotation with better than an ERA of 5.00 is pathetic. It also isn’t helping matters any that Milwaukee hasn’t lost a game by exactly one run in which it was an underdog since May 17th, and since that point, the team only has four SU victories, two of which have come by exactly one run as favorites. That’s the recipe for a brutal disaster if you’re betting the run-lines with the Brew Crew.
New York Mets (22-34, -$1,850) – The Mets just don’t have the offense to beat the run-lines on a consistent basis. The team is only batting .228 as a club, and to make matters worse, there isn’t a pitcher on the staff outside of RHP Matt Harvey that is worth a lick. The Mets just dropped three games in a row to the Marlins, which is never a good sign. The other brutal fact of the matter is that that four-game sweep of the hated Yankees, which will forever be the highlight of this season, only ended up resulting in a 2-2 record against the run-line and a net cash of absolutely zippo for their backers.
San Francisco Giants (21-38, -$1,562) – Two weeks ago, we drew up why the Giants were really struggling so badly on the run-line in spite of the fact that they were a winning team from an SU standpoint. To make matters worse now, San Fran is -$89 from an SU perspective this year, and that’s why the run-line prices are getting a lot worse when it is frequently the favorite in games. The team is just 1-4 in its last five games against the run-line, and there are some brutal losses in there as well at +1.5 and -150 or better, including both of those losses against the Cardinals on the same day to start June at Busch Stadium.
Washington Nationals (24-35, -$1,533) – Here’s another team just like San Francisco. The Nationals are a decent team, but they play in a huge stadium where home runs don’t happen every day, and they don’t have the offense to back up a normally reliable pitching staff. When that pitching staff starts to fold though, things get really bad and you end up on a list like this. Washington hasn’t gotten any help this year from a run-line perspective from LHP Gio Gonzalez, who was one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball last season, and now, RHP Stephen Strasburg is on the DL with a lat strain. Things are only getting worse in DC in all likelihood.
Cleveland Indians (26-33, -$1,287) – This is just some downright bad luck if you’re a fan of the Indians. There aren’t many teams that have a bigger discrepancy right now between the won/loss record from an SU perspective and their run-line profits and losses, but the Indians are right there. Cleveland is +472 SU and -$1,287 ATS, and this recent losing skid really is to blame. The Tribe only have one loss of exactly one run since May 26th, and the team is only 3-7 SU in that stretch. The mass majority of those losses have come as underdogs as well, and those are the games that really kill underdog teams. The -$100 loss for losing a game SU as a dog isn’t so bad, but those -150, -160, or worse defeats are the ones that kill your run-line records.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.