Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
San Francisco Giants (36-58, -$2,477) – There isn’t a single situation in baseball in which there is more of a profit or a loss than what the Giants have managed to lose for their run-line bettors this year. Dropping 58 games in the first half of the season on the run-line is quite a ridiculous mark, especially when you consider the fact that they have been underdogs quite a bit, especially of late. San Francisco has just been playing all sorts of ridiculous games of late. Just over the course of the last six games of the season, we saw a pair of 10-1 games, a 9-0 game, a 7-2 game, and a 10-6 game. It’s just not going to get any worse than that when you’re talking about betting run-lines, win or lose. Unfortunately for the Giants, they have lost their last four games as underdogs by more than one run, and those are the losses that will really kill you.
Milwaukee Brewers (39-55, -$2,059) – The Brewers did pick up a couple run-line wins at +1.5 on July 12th and 13th, but they just aren’t do that often enough to make things pay off. Milwaukee is one of these teams that just loses far too many games, and unless there is a way to start picking up some more wins, this just isn’t going to be getting any better. The Brewers have gone eight straight games with five runs or fewer scored, and they have only scored more than five runs in a game once since June 25th. That’s why the club is getting killed on run-lines, and unless OF Ryan Braun is going to be a miracle worker when he gets back in the lineup, or unless someone on this pitching staff is going to step up and be a star, the losses will continue to pile up.
Chicago White Sox (43-49, -$1,456) – The White Sox are only going to get worse over the course of these next two weeks when the trade deadline comes and goes, as reportedly, everyone on the team is on the market with the exception of a few players. This doesn’t bode well for bettors who have been bleeding money on the Pale Hose on the run-line all year. The good news is that the team has won four straight games on the run-line going into the break, and that really erases some of the stench of what has amassed over the course of the rest of the campaign. Still, just look at this crew… Will Alexei Ramirez, Alejandro De Aza, Alex Rios, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jesse Crain, and so many others still be here come August 1st? That’s the biggest question of them all.
Kansas City Royals (42-50, -$1,424) – For a few weeks, the Royals looked like they were ultimately going to get back into the swing of things and have a shot to contend for a spot in the playoffs. However, they really never did start to pick up wins against the run-line with consistency. The last five games of the first half of the year not only ended in SU losses, but run-line losses as well, and the numbers were a heck of a lot worse for the run-line bettors than the SU bettors. That was really the damning portion of the season for Kansas City, which dropped over half of its season in losses in that span of just five days. The pitching staff has to get a heck of a lot better than averaging 6.0 runs per game allowed as was the case in those last five games.
Colorado Rockies (45-51, -$1,331) – The Rockies are still in the running in the NL West, but there is a real question as to what is going to happen by July 31st. Is Colorado going to sell and potentially make a huge move to try to get better in the future? Will it stand pat? Or will it try to make a go for it. We tend to believe that the Rocks are going to just hold the course, and if that’s the case, it’s going to be more of the same. Odds have it, the won/loss record for Colorado is going to look a lot like its run-line record, knowing that there just aren’t all that many one-run games when you have an offense that scores a ton and a pitching staff that has very few legitimate starters.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.