MLB Betting – Worst MLB Run-Line Teams (7/5/13)
Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
San Francisco Giants (31-53, -$2,497) – The deck is simply stacked against the Giants this year. They are one of the underachieving teams in baseball, and they just don’t produce enough runs to succeed on the run-line all that often. They only have 31 wins for the season against the run-line, easily the fewest in baseball. The club has lost nine out of 10 games, and that figures to be bad enough as it is. However, a 3-2 loss as +165 underdogs against the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday proved to snap a dreadful 2-10 stretch on the run-line that dated back to June 20th. The real killer games are all of these losses as +120 or so underdogs, as they’re proving -170 losses on the run-line. It’s tough to make up ground when you can’t score runs, and at 2.24 runs per game since June 16th, there is no doubt that this offense is struggling more than most in baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers (34-50, -$1,996) – The Brewers are just bad any way you look at it. They’re terrible at home (-$724), they’re terrible on the road (-$961), they’re terrible from an SU perspective (-$1,685), and they’re terrible on the run-line as well. Starting pitching for this team has been atrocious. Alfred Figaro, Marco Estrada, and Mark Rogers are all on the DL, Wily Peralta, Donovan Hand, and the rest of the stiffs that are being thrown out there shouldn’t be in major league rotations, and both Kyle Lohse and Yovani Gallardo have been terrible underachievers. The bullpen actually has done pretty darn well this year for the Brew Crew, and that’s the sin of the whole thing. The good news is that the offense should be able to get this team back in the thick of the fight of games at times, and that +1.5 run-line could come into play quite a bit in the second half of the season.
Washington Nationals (35-50, -$1,917) – Are you getting a feel here for what teams are struggling on the run-line this year? Scoring is down in baseball, and the teams that are built with their pitching and are just underachieving, even in the slightest of forms, are the ones that are really getting killed on the run-line. San Francisco was Exhibit A, but Washington might be an even better example. This is a club that is above .500 with a 43-42 record, but it has played a whopping 25-one run games already this season. That’s a killer when the team is -1.5 on such a regular basis, especially in a division where it is going to be favored in most games, home or away, against two of the other four teams.
Chicago White Sox (38-44, -$1,368) – The White Sox are about set to become one of the worst teams in baseball, as we expect that they are going to clean house here any day now as we approach the July 31st trade deadline. Jake Peavy has lost his last four games against the run-line, and Chris Sale has lost his last six against the run-line, and when your best pitchers aren’t coming through for you, you’re going to be in bad shape. The Sox are underdogs more often than not, so they only have to beat the +1.5 line, but the problem is that most of their one-run losses have come with either Sale or Peavy on the mound. The team has played in 31 one-run games this year though, a tremendous percentage all things considered, and if that continues, perhaps the Pale Hose can turn this around just a bit.
Colorado Rockies (39-47, -$1,345) – The Rockies are simply a case of a team that we all want to believe in, but the oddsmakers just haven’t made that flip to make them short favorites instead of short underdogs on the average night. These last two series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and the aforementioned Giants were the perfect example. Colorado was -128, +101, +133, +117, +102, and -138 in the six games, and going 3-3 both on the run-line and on the moneyline in those games provides two significantly different results. On the run-line, the Rocks lost nearly $300 in those six games. On the moneyline, they were +$2.