Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
San Francisco Giants (39-67, -$3,173) – The Giants have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the course of the last several weeks, and they have been suffering on the run-line over and over again. The team had lost eight out of nine on the run-line before getting the snot out of the Phillies 9-2 on the last day of July. The bottom line is that the pitching staff has been a nightmare for the most part, and the combination of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum just hasn’t been good enough. In the end, the Giants are the biggest disappointment in baseball this year, and regardless of how you slice it, the defending champs should never be this bad in any respect.
Washignton Nationals (44-64, -$2,490) – The Nationals were supposed to run away from the NL East this year, but they just weren’t able to get the job done. They are now four-games below .500, and they have really been struggling badly on the run-line as well. It’s not surprising considering the fact that Washington is favored a lot more often than it isn’t, especially at home, where it is difficult to score a ton of runs. The pitching staff really hasn’t gotten the job done, and the bats just aren’t good enough. Outside of Bryce Harper, there haven’t been all that many great pieces to the offensive puzzle this year. The Nationals have taken three bad run-line beatings over the course of the last few weeks, and they have been beaten as -170 or worse, and those are the types of defeats that put you in the bottom five in run-line production this year.
Colorado Rockies (48-61, -$2,060) – You really don’t think of the Rockies as a club that should be struggling against run-lines this year. They are a decent team that will probably win right around 75 games for the season, and generally speaking, a time like this that has a good home field advantage and a knack for playing high scoring games wouldn’t be struggling this much. However, Colorado has fallen off the face of the earth over the course of the last month or so of the season, and it started when Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki both were on the DL at the same time. Since then, the Rocks went from right in the thick of the playoff chase to seven-games below .500, and in that time, the run-lines really crept up on them. Colorado doesn’t lose money as quickly on the run-lines as some of the other teams in the game that feature lower ‘totals’ with regularity (thus higher splits in the run-line), but it has been consistently bad this year and will probably be finishing up the season in the bottom five in the league in run-line losses.
Chicago White Sox (48-57, -$1,956) – The White Sox are only averaging 3.70 runs per game this year. They never did deal Alex Rios at the trade deadline, but they did ultimately send Jake Peavy packing. Chicago knows that this is going to be a long end of the season, and it’s tough to believe that this team is going to finish outside of this bottom five in the league in run-line production, or outside of the bottom five of the league in SU money production as well. Manager Robin Ventura has his work cut out for him, and with one of his best pitchers and one of his best relievers (Jesse Crain) now gone, there is no doubt that the Sox are dead in the water for the rest of the season.
Milwaukee Brewers (47-61, -$1,867) – Ryan Braun is said and done with for the rest of the season after accepting his suspension. Yovani Gallardo didn’t get traded, nor did anyone else on the Brew Crew, but they have lost a lot of players due to injury over the course of this season that will hurt the rest of the campaign. Milwaukee isn’t going to be able to make a lot of production on this run-line number for the rest of the year, knowing that it is an underdog virtually every single day. The team did have a five-game winning streak from a run-line standpoint this week, though. However, to think that this is a team that is still losing almost $2,000 this year after this solid run is definitely telling. We wouldn’t want to get in the way of the Brewers for the rest of the year for sure.
Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.