MLB Betting – Worst MLB Run-Line Teams (6/20/13)
One of the most underrated bets in baseball is the run-line. Teams can win or lose tons of money thanks to that -1.5 or +1.5 line, and today, we’re going to look at some of the ones that have beaten the run-lines with the most efficiency this season.
Betting the run-line can be one of the best, or one of the worst bets in baseball. Listed below are the teams that have been stinking up the joint as terrible run-line teams on the MLB odds
Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team’s moneyline record, it doesn’t necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the worst teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
New York Mets (27-41, -$2,120) – The Mets have been the worst team in baseball on the run line this year, which is no surprise if you have watched the club over the past decade. New York’s struggles are pronounced and evident across the board, but most pronounced when looking at offensive productivity. The Mets are 30th in baseball in batting average (.226), 29th in slugging percentage (.367), 27th in OBP (.294), and 25th in runs (262). Some of these numbers put the Mets lower than the pitiful Marlins! There is some shine beneath all the rubble that is the Mets. 3B David Wright has been great so far this season. Wright is the only usual starter on the team that is OPSing more than .850 in 2013 (.871) and even has 12 of the team’s 29 steals to contribute to the cause. Other than Wright, only Daniel Murphy and Marlon Byrd have been somewhat decent and unfortunately for the poor Mets, they have no potential hitting stars anywhere in their minor league system.
Milwaukee Brewers (27-43, -$1,923) – Coming into this season, the Brewers were expected to at least keep it competitive and stay around .500. That has completely gone out the window as Milwaukee’s pitching staff has completely exploded this year. For proof, look no further than the 10 runs they gave up to Houston on Tuesday night. Kyle Lohse has been about the starter Milwaukee was expecting and is one of the few pitchers that is earning his weight on the team, but guys like Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, Hiram Burgos, and Marco Estrada have struggled in their starts. It doesn’t help matters that Milwaukee’s two set-up men, John Axford, and Brandon Kintzler, have been awful this season as well.
Washington Nationals (29-42, -$1,771) – The Nationals have improved their run-line record since the last time we checked in on them, but are down even more money than before. How is that possible? Four one-run wins and a few one-run losses as a favorite will do that to a team. Before the Nationals’ run-line win on Wednesday, Washington had dropped four in a row on the run-line with the public perception over how good this team should be killing it. Apart from wonderkid Bryce Harper, Washington has done little on offense. Harper has now been on the DL for close to a month and if the Nationals have any chance to improve its run-line total, he needs to get back in action soon.
San Francisco Giants (27-44, -$1,722) – Despite what looks to be an elite pitching staff on paper, the Giants have been pretty bad on the run-line in 2013. A lot of this is explained by the struggles of San Francisco’s ace Matt Cain. Cain is traditionally one of the best at keeping the ball inside the park. His average number of home runs allowed in a season hovers somewhere around 20 usually, but he has already given up 15 bombs in 2013. The rest of Cain’s peripherals are pretty good, but he’s currently averaging one home run allowed per game and is on pace to throw 50% more gopher balls this season than his previous season high.
Cleveland Indians (33-38, -$1,205) – Cleveland’s record in one-run games is killing it against their run-line record, meaning a huge disparity between what their record is on the moneyline and what it is on the run-line per the MLB betting odds. The Indians’ luck might get even worse than it is now too since advanced stats show this team has gotten extremely fortunate with its BABIP numbers and is due to regress. This month, the Indians started terribly against the run-line, going just 2-7 against it in their first nine games of June. Since then, the Indians have gotten a little better, posting a 5-3 record against the run-line but still well short of where they need to be to help line your pockets.
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