The Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars are going to duke it out on Monday Night Football in the Sunshine State on Monday Night, and here at Bang the Book, we’re going to take our picks for some of the MNF props on the board for one of the biggest games of the weekend!
Jacksonville Jaguars Margin of Victory 1-3 Points (+600): And why not? We’re fairly certain if the Jags are winning this game, it’s not coming by a humongous amount of points. There is a certain spunk about Jacksonville playing at home that we like, and though we don’t necessarily think that we’re playing a 50/50 prop right here, we do know that we are likely at least posting 6 to 1 odds on something that has at least a 20 percent chance of happening. In the long run, that type of overlay price will make us incredibly rich.
Joe Flacco Under 240.5 Passing Yards: There are a few things to remember here when you’re talking about Flacco in this game. This Jacksonville secondary is a lot better than it would appear. Sure, it hasn’t played against these dynamo passing games, but it did totally shut down QB Ben Roethlisberger for a full half last week, and it has the ability to do some damage against the Ravens as well. We also know that regardless of how tough things get, RB Ray Rice is going to be toting the rock on the ground over and over and over again. We’d be surprised to see Rice get fewer than 20 carries in this game, and if that is the case, there just won’t be all that many chances for Flacco to work the ball up the field.
Maurice Jones-Drew Over 72.5 Rushing Yards: Speaking of running backs that we know will get their carries and their yards… MJD is just like a little bowling ball, and he is still getting a ton of rushes with QB Blaine Gabbert still having his training wheels on in his rookie season. Jones-Drew is always out there looking for holes in opposing defenses, and he had a lot of success last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers as well. We’re splitting hairs with the defenses of the Steelers and the Ravens as to which one is truly better, but we know that either way, no matter how ugly this game gets, the former UCLA Bruin will get his carries, and normally speaking, when he gets those carries, he’ll get over 75 rushing yards as well.
Longest Touchdown Of the Game Under 39.5 Yards: It seems as though it is always a slam dunk that there is going to be a touchdown of at least 40 yards in any given game, but we have to remember what we’re talking about right now. Baltimore has had problems working the ball up the field, and unless Rice breaks a long one, it’s going to be hard for this team to score that long of a touchdown, especially against this secondary. Meanwhile, Jacksonville never takes shots like that down the field, especially with Gabbert calling the shots. It’s going to take a defensive or a special teams score for this prop to beat us, and at this standard -115 price for an NFL betting prop, we aren’t going to take our chances. There are probably going to only be three or four touchdowns in the entire game, and if that’s the case, the majority will probably be via short passes or runs.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.