The last two teams of the week to kick it off on Monday Night Football betting action this week are the New York Jets and the Houston Texans. Check out some of the NFL prop bets that are available at BetDSI, as we analyze the betting lines and see which sides to play.
Mark Sanchez Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 (-180): Doesn’t it just feel like Sanchez is going to have a hard time stringing two completed passes together, let alone two completed touchdown passes? New York is going to be lucky to score two touchdowns in this game against a Houston defense that has been just flat out awesome for all but really just one quarter this whole season. We think that there is a decent chance that Sanchez gets benched at some point during this game, and if that turns out to be the case, there is just no way that he is going to have two scores. It seems to be Tebow Time to us in the Big Apple, especially with as badly as the New York offensive line has played over the course of the start of this season.
Andre Johnson Receiving Yards Over 76.5 (-115): With DB Darrelle Revis not in the fold, you can bet that the Texans are going to want to take some shots down the field, and Johnson is the man that is going to be the recipient of most of those long balls. This is what happened on the road against the Denver Broncos earlier this year, and AJ caught not just one, but two of those long ones. That came against Champ Bailey. This is coming against Antonio Cromartie or someone who is going to be a whole heck of a lot worse. Johnson has hadn’t that explosive game where he catches 10 balls for 140 yards with two scores yet this year, and this could be the moment that that finally happens for him.
Matt Schaub Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards (-130): Same concept. Houston does a lot of these three wide receiver sets, and if that turns out to be the case, we’re going to see a lot of a running back on the field playing corner in RB/DB Joe McKnight. Lining up Johnson on the outside and another receiver to his inside is going to create insane matchups for both receivers, and we have seen Schaub be willing to take his shots, especially off of play-action. RB Arian Foster is going to force the Jets to stay at home with the front seven, and all of a sudden, there goes Johnson or one of the younger receivers down the sidelines for what could be a huge touchdown toss. One of these passes just has to go for at least 40 yards from Schaub to Johnson.
Jeremy Kerley Receptions Over 3.5 (-115): Why? Because someone has to catch some passes for the Jets in this game. WR Santonio Holmes is out for the season, WR Stephen Hill is listed as questionable, but in all reality is probably doubtful for the game, and TE Dustin Keller is likely out as well. That leaves Kerley, who is the only wide receiver that will have caught more than six passes this year on the field for the Jets. Head Coach Rex Ryan likes to get the ball in Kerley’s hands to see what he can do with the ball, and this is a great time to get a lot of those short passes out to him in the flats. We expect that Kerley will catch at least three or four of those short ones and at least one big one as well over the course of the game.
First Score of the Game To Be a Touchdown (-150): If it’s the Jets that score first, this is clearly a 50/50 proposition. New York has scored seven touchdowns and kicked six field goals in four games this year. Houston has attempted eight field goals and made seven of the eight, and the team has 15 TDs. This is just simple math the way that we see it. Yes, Head Coach Gary Kubiak is going to be conservative, and he isn’t the type of coach that is going to go for it on 4th and 1 from the opposition 30 yard line early in the game, but we still think that at least 65% of the time, this is a winning proposition for a touchdown to be the first score of the game.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.