The last two teams of the week to kick it off on Monday Night Football betting action this week are the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans. Check out some of the NFL prop bets that are available at BetDSI, as we analyze the betting lines and see which sides to play.
First Score of the Game To Be a Field Goal Or Safety (+180): It’s just a really nice price on either one of these teams to not quite get all the way to the end zone on their first scoring drive. There are 45 field goals between these two teams this year, and there is a lot of settling for long kicks as well. Granted, we know that K Stephen Gostkowski and K Shayne Graham have done their share of missing this year, and we know that both of these offenses have the ability to put points up in bunches, but more than one out of three scores that these two put up is going to be a field goal (or a safety), so we think that this is a prop with a heck of a lot of value to it, though we know that it is going to be a losing bet more often than not.
Matt Schaub Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+105): The truth of the matter is that this is just a gut shot of a play. The numbers really aren’t there to support this one, and we know that the Texans are likely to have to throw the ball a bunch in this one. However, we think that the day is going to belong to RB Arian Foster, who hasn’t had one of those just massive games over the course of the last several weeks, and we are wondering whether he is going to be able to come out of nowhere and get the job done against the Pats. There are probably only three, perhaps four touchdowns to be had in this game, and if Foster can jack two of them, there’s a good chance that Schaub isn’t going to get to this number more often than not. He’ll get his one, likely to WR Andre Johnson, but anything more than that is awfully hard to forecast.
Arian Foster Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-115): This is just a silly prop that should be lined at least 8-10 yards higher than it already is placed at. Foster has rumbled for at least 98 yards in all of his games this year against top flight teams, save for the game against the Green Bay Packers in which the whole Houston team simply forgot to show up. The Houston stretch play is one of the most feared plays in the game at the moment, as Foster’s rushing ability behind a great offensive line always makes him capable of ripping off a long one. It’s only going to take one sizeable run to get this one past the Foster’s yardage total, and we think that this is a game that significantly more often than not, the former Tennessee Volunteer is going to coast past the 100+ yard mark.
Tom Brady Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-250): There have already been two games this year in which Brady hasn’t thrown for at least two TD passes at home, and he had another one of those games last week against the Miami Dolphins on the road. Still, when push comes to shove, there’s just no way that we can bet against the Brady Bunch in this one. Houston’s secondary only ranks 19th in the NFL, and though scoring against this team is down, the secondary has been suspect at best over the course of the last several weeks. It won’t be all that easy for Brady to get to two touchdown passes, but for as stout as the middle of this defense is, it’s going to be easier for Brady to get the ball to the outside and into the hands of some of the men like WR Wes Welker and WR Julian Edelman than it is to try to jam it right up the gut with RB Stevan Ridley or others.
Tom Brady To Not Throw An Interception (+100): We really don’t know what the heck the sportsbooks are doing with this one. Brady has only thrown four picks all year long, and one of those came last week. The Houston secondary does have 14 INTs this year, but all of those picks have come in a span of just six total games. QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Peyton Manning, and QB Matthew Stafford, the three best quarterbacks that Houston has played this year, have all gone through the whole game without getting picked off, and there’s no reason to think that Brady won’t more often than not as well.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.