NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction

hawks bucks nba picksThe Milwaukee Bucks (36-37) will attempt to bring a 10-game road losing streak to a halt when they meet the Atlanta Hawks (55-18) at Philips Arena. Action begins at 7:30 pm ET on Monday, Mar. 30 and can be seen on FSN-WI and SPSO.

The Hawks are are expecting a better outcome after their 115-100 loss to the Hornets on Saturday. Despite the loss, Mike Muscala earned his first double-double this season with 18 points and 10 rebounds. The Bucks, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 108-95 loss against the Warriors on Saturday. Jared Dudley had a good game for Milwaukee, registering 13 points, five rebounds, and two steals.

Zaza Pachulia and Ersan Ilyasova have upped their production over the last five games for the Bucks. Pachulia has averaged 14.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 2.0 steals during that stretch, while Ilyasova has put up 19.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.8 blocks, and 2.4 three-pointers.

This one might be a mistake-prone game for the Bucks offense, which ranks 29th in the NBA in miscues (turnover percentage of 16.4%). They’re matched up against the disruptive Atlanta defense, which causes the fourth-most turnovers in the league (15.9%).

The Hawks lead the season series against the Bucks two games to one, including a 97-86 win the last time these two teams met. Paul Millsap put up a double-double in the victory with 23 points and 16 rebounds.

The odds for Atlanta and Milwaukee are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently not available. The Hawks come into this game 55-18 Straight Up (SU) and 44-29 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 34-10 SU and 26-18 ATS against the Eastern Conference. The Hawks are one of the best in the NBA in terms of three-point field goals, making 10.0 shots per game from beyond the arc. Atlanta is one of the best passing teams in the league with an average of 25.5 assists per game. Turning to the defensive side, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Hawks. The 95.8 points that Atlanta’s defense allows per home game makes them the fourth-ranked defense at home. Atlanta’s defenders rank fifth in the NBA in steals with 9.0 per game. Atlanta is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 18.2 points per game. Atlanta will look to take advantage of the Bucks and their propensity to foul. Milwaukee ranks 27th in the league in fouls, averaging 22.2 per game.

In the other locker room, the Bucks have a record of 40-31-2 ATS and 36-37 SU. Against the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee is 25-18 SU and 26-15-2 ATS. Milwaukee is the fourth-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 18.7 per game.

The Hawks’ win over Milwaukee in their last game bumped their SU record to 9-1 over the Bucks in the last 10 meetings. Furthermore, the Hawks hold the advantage ATS with a record of 7-3. Atlanta and Milwaukee both held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time over the last 10 games.

Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL

Notes

Atlanta scores an average of 102.4 points per game (ranked 11th), while Milwaukee gives up 97.6 points per game (ranked eighth).

Atlanta and Milwaukee are well matched, ranking ninth in points per home game and points allowed per away game respectively. Atlanta puts up an average of 102.9 points per home game, while Milwaukee allows 98.8 points per away game on average.

Atlanta has a formidable 40-4 record when it allows under 100 points this season. Milwaukee is 19-23 when it puts up under 100.

The Atlanta Hawks have a 15-14 record when their opponents score at least 100 points. The Milwaukee Bucks have a 17-14 record when they register triple digits.

The Bucks have a defensive rating of 99.9, third-best in the NBA. The Hawks also rank in the top half of the league for their offensive rating of 106.0 (ranked sixth).

The Milwaukee Bucks average 97.7 possessions per game and 1.001 points per possession. The Atlanta Hawks earn fewer possessions with 96.6, but they score more points with 1.060.

Atlanta is among the top-ranked teams based on its average effective field goal percentage of 52.7% (ranked third in the NBA). Milwaukee is an abysmal 5-15 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.

The Atlanta Hawks average 25.9 three point attempts per game, and the Milwaukee Bucks attempt 18.3 per game. When going for at least 25 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Atlanta is 33-11 and Milwaukee is 4-1.

Atlanta has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.88 this season (ranked third), while Milwaukee ranks lower at 22nd with an A/TO of 1.45.

Atlanta ranks 28th in rebounds per game with 40.5, while Milwaukee ranks 23rd with 42.1 per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks rank 18th in offensive rebounding, while the Atlanta Hawks rank 19th in defensive rebounding.

Though Atlanta is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.9% (ranked fourth), Milwaukee has a winning 24-15 record SU when its TOV% is 15.9% or greater.

Aaron Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.