NBA Prediction: Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors

celtics warriors nba against the spread predictions and free nba picksNBA Odds: Celtics (+8)

The Golden State Warriors (45-11) visit Boston to take on the Celtics (23-33) in what should be a fast-paced game. Action begins at 6:00 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 1 and can be seen on CSN-BA and CSN-NE.

The Celtics played well in their last game, topping the Hornets 106-98 on Friday. Jonas Jerebko was a key piece, recording his first double-double of the season with 16 points and 10 rebounds. The Warriors, meanwhile, are coming off a 113-89 win against the Raptors on Friday. Stephen Curry had a good game for Golden State, registering 22 points, six rebounds, and five assists.

Avery Bradley has taken his game to another level over the last five games for the Celtics. During that stretch, he has averaged 20.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.2 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.

There could be a fair amount of transition offense in a game that features two of the league’s more up-tempo teams. Boston is ranked third in the NBA in possessions per game (100.1), while Golden State is first (101.7).

This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Warriors winning the first matchup 114-111. Despite the loss, Jared Sullinger had a standout performance with 26 points, nine rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one three-pointer.

The odds for Boston and Golden State are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable as of now. The Celtics have gone 22-33-1 Straight Up (SU) and 31-24 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (7-2). Boston’s defense has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game dropped to 90.8 during that span, compared to its 102.6 season average.

In the other locker room, the Warriors have a record of 33-21-1 ATS and 44-11-1 SU. Against the Eastern Conference, Golden State is 17-4-1 SU and 10-10-1 ATS. Offensively, they average 110.2 points per game, which is tops in the league. The Warriors convert their three-pointers at a high percentage, leading the league at .390. The Warriors are a very unselfish team with a NBA-leading 27.3 assists per game. Moving on to Golden State’s defense, the Warriors have the best opponent field-goal percentage in the league at .426. Blocking shots is an area where Golden State has excelled. The Warriors average 6.0 blocks per game, making them one of the best in the league. Golden State is the second-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 20.0 per game.

With the Warriors’ last win against Boston, they evened up the head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings, 5-5 SU. The Warriors lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. In these last 10 matchups, Boston held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers two times, with Golden State controlling all three of these areas once.

Predictions: SU Winner – GS, ATS Winner – GS

Notes

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State’s last 8 games.

Golden State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games.

Golden State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.

Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State’s last 7 games on the road.

Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State’s last 5 games when playing Boston.

Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston.

Golden State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston.

Boston ranks 11th in points per game with 101.6, while Golden State ranks 17th in points allowed with an average of 99.8 given up.

Boston has allowed an average of 101.7 points per home game this season. Golden State averages 106.4 points per away game, placing the team at the top of the NBA in scoring.

The Boston Celtics have a winning record (17-5) when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Golden State Warriors are 7-5 when they don’t hit triple digits.

The Boston Celtics have a subpar 6-28 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Golden State Warriors are 38-6 when they hit triple digits.

The Warriors have the league’s top defense, with a defensive rating of 98.1. The Celtics have an offensive rating of 101.4 (ranked 18th).

With 100.1 possessions and 1.014 points per possession, the Boston Celtics perform worse on both metrics than the Golden State Warriors. Golden State averages 101.7 possessions and 1.083 points per possession.

The Golden State Warriors have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking first in the league with an EFF% of 53.9%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Boston Celtics are winless with a 0-12 record.

Among all teams, Golden State is the best when it comes to assists, registering an average of 27.3 per game. Boston ranks slightly lower in total assists, at third (24.6 per game).

The Golden State Warriors average 6.0 blocks per game, the fifth-ranked team in the league. The Boston Celtics rank a lowly 29th in blocking with just 3.9 per game.

The Boston Celtics are a top-15 offensive rebounding team, currently ranked 14th for the season. The Golden State Warriors rank near the very top (third) in defensive rebounding.

The Boston Celtics rank 10th in steals, with an average of 8.2 per game. When the Golden State Warriors allow at least 8 steals, they have a winning 26-9 record.

Aaron Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.