NBA Predictions: Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets

hawks hornets nba picksThe Charlotte Hornets (33-45) will have their chance to bring down the Eastern Conference’s best team when they square off against the Atlanta Hawks (59-19) at Philips Arena. The game gets underway at 7:30 pm ET on Friday, Apr. 10 and will air on SPSO.

The Hawks won a close one over the Nets 114-111 on Wednesday. Al Horford led all scorers with 24 points on 11-for-20 shooting. The Hornets, meanwhile, are coming off an ugly 92-74 loss to the Raptors on Wednesday. Kemba Walker had a good shooting night, leading the team with 15 points.

Over the last five games, DeMarre Carroll has really been playing well for the Hawks. During that stretch, he has averaged 17.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1.8 three-pointers.

Second-chance points might be scarce for Atlanta in this matchup. They rank 30th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (offensive rebound percentage of 21.4%), while the Hornets are best in the league on the defensive glass (defensive rebound percentage of 79.4%). Also, the Hornets commit the fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 11.5%), while the gambling defense of the Hawks causes the third-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.9%).

The Hornets have won two out of three against the Hawks this season, including a 115-100 victory in their last matchup. Gerald Henderson was a standout player in the game, producing 20 points, five rebounds, four assists, and two three-pointers.

Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Hawks enter the game with records of 59-19 Straight Up (SU) and 48-30 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS when playing their division. Atlanta is excellent from the perimeter, shooting a stellar .383 from three-point range. Few teams in the league have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Atlanta, which ranks third at 1.91. Turning to the defensive side, the Atlanta defense overall is very good at home, only giving up 95.0 points per game. If its opponents turn the ball over, Atlanta has shown that it knows how to capitalize. They average 18.4 points off turnovers, making them the fifth-best team in the league for that category.

On the other side, the Hornets head into the game with records of 37-39-2 ATS and 33-45 SU. In divisional games, Charlotte has gone 8-7 SU and 9-5-1 ATS. The Hornets rarely make the wrong play with the ball. They have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the league at 1.82.

Charlotte won the last meeting this season between these two teams, but the Hawks still lead the head-to-head record, 7-3 SU, over the last 10 matchups. Additionally, the Hawks lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Atlanta held the edge in all three of these categories five times in the last 10 meetings. Charlotte never did so in those games.

Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL

Notes

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte’s last 5 games.

Charlotte is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games.

Charlotte is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Charlotte’s last 18 games on the road.

Charlotte is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road.

Charlotte is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing Atlanta.

Charlotte is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Atlanta.

Charlotte is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 11-3 SU against its divisional rivals, while Charlotte is 8-7 SU.

On average, Charlotte puts up 94.7 points per game (ranked 27th), while Atlanta allows 97.1 points per game (ranked sixth).

Charlotte averages 94.2 points per away game, placing the team just 26th in the league. Atlanta ranks third in points allowed at home, giving up 95.0 points per home game.

In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Atlanta Hawks are a superb 43-4. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Charlotte Hornets have a poor record of 12-34.

Atlanta is 16-15 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Hornets have a solid 21-11 record when they hit the century mark.

The Hawks have the fifth-best offensive rating in the NBA (106.6). The Hornets are also in the top half of the league based on their defensive rating of 100.3 (ranked sixth).

Atlanta averages fewer possessions per game than Charlotte, with 96.4 compared to 96.7. However, the Hawks score an average of 1.066 points per possession, more than the .979 that the Hornets score.

Atlanta is among the top-ranked teams based on its average effective field goal percentage of 52.9% (ranked third in the NBA). Charlotte is a poor 5-14 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.

The Atlanta Hawks rank second in assists per game, making an average of 25.8. The Charlotte Hornets are among the worst in the league with 20.2 assists per game (ranked 26th).

Atlanta makes an average of 4.6 blocks per game (ranked 14th). Charlotte ranks higher in blocks with 5.6 (ranked sixth).

Atlanta ranks 30th in offensive rebounds, while Charlotte ranks fifth in defensive rebounds.

The Atlanta Hawks average 9.0 steals per game (ranked fifth). The Charlotte Hornets have an underachieving record of 3-5 when they allow at least 9 steals.

Aaron Ryan

Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.